Thailand enters calm before election storm (Reuters)

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Political campaigning in Thailand drew to a close Saturday, taking a day to cool off before an election which could exacerbate the country's six-year-old political crisis just as easily as end it.

Opinion polls point to a win by the opposition Puea Thai (For Thais) party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, over the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Thaksin, who lives in self-appointed exile in Dubai after being ousted by the military in 2006, looms large over the election, popular with the red shirts supporters of Puea Thai and hated by the Democrat elite who want him to stand trial for corruption.

The risk of turbulence lies in the margin of a Puea Thai win and the reaction of the red shirts, mostly rural and urban poor whose protests last year prompted a bloody crackdown. Key as well will be the response of the military, which has a history of intervening in Thai politics.

"It's almost certain the Puea Thai will win, the question is by how much," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

If they win by a landslide, it would be a "slap in the face" of the Democrats, but would likely rile the military which has a record of launching coups when riled, he said.

Yingluck told reporters Saturday she was confident Puea Thai would win more than 250 seats, an outright majority, while Abhisit appealed to supporters to give the Democrats the same margin of victory.

"What we would like to see is a clean and fair election," Yingluck said, adding that it was premature to talk about a coalition with any other party.

It also is possible the Puea Thai party has reached a deal with the military -- allowing them to rule in return for not pursuing the generals responsible for last year's violence, which killed 91 people, mostly red shirts.

If the margin of the win is small, Puea Thai would have to garner the support of smaller parties. Their backing could be contingent on Thaksin serving jail time for corruption as part of any plan to bring him back from self-exile in Dubai.

There also is the possibility of the Democrats teaming up with smaller parties to get the necessary majority, an outcome sure to bring the red shirts back out on to the streets.

At a stadium packed with about 20,000 people, many under umbrellas in driving rain, Yingluck Friday called for reconciliation and promised a probe of last year's violence.

"If only you give this woman a chance to serve you," she said.

Abhisit warned about 15,000 voters not to believe her.

"They say they will move Thailand forward, but I don't believe they will do so on your behalf," he said, before assuring supporters he would heal rifts in Thai society.

Amnesty International called on whoever wins to end repression, unlawful use of lethal force and intimidation of peaceful dissidents.

Election days in Thailand are traditionally dry affairs, with alcohol sales banned from 6 pm Saturday to midnight on Sunday and the go-go bars closed.

A spoof Web site called "Not the Nation" wondered how the city's foreigners would cope, and whether Thai police were bracing for a weekend of violence from "angry, sober, alcoholic expatriates."

(Additional reporting by Vithoon Amorn; Editing by Brian Rhoads)

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Thailand's Election: A Test of Its Fragile Democracy (Time.com)

Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's exiled former Prime Minister, likes to compare himself to Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's pro-democracy movement. Both are in conflict with their country's military-backed leaders. But that's where the similarities end. Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize winner, whereas Thaksin backed two violent anti-government protests. Suu Kyi spent more than decade under house arrest for her political convictions, while Thaksin fled rather than do time for corruption. Suu Kyi is a champion of democracy, Thaksin's critics call him an autocrat.

But as Thailand heads toward a national election this weekend, Thaksin looks set to get a new lease on his political life. The Pheu Thai party, which he controls from Dubai, is poised to defeat incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party. And the person he can thank for that turnaround is the woman he hand-picked to lead and who may become Thailand's first female prime minister: Yingluck Shinawatra - his youngest sister. (Read about the tumultuous Thai election.)

Although Yingluck Shinawatra has never held office, the 44-year old executive has emerged as this election's brightest political star. She either carries the sheen of the Shinawatra name or the taint of Thaksin, depending upon a Thai's political point of view. Many aren't sure what to think; Polls show between 20% and 40% of voters remain undecided. The split reflects lingering anger about the violent protests that rocked Bangkok last year. To sway voters, Yingluck has cast herself as a pacifist: "As I am a female I do not encourage violence. I will unite Thailand,'' she told Time.

Indeed, Yingluck displays none of her brother's notorious temper. With her soft physicality, photogenic looks and ever-present smile, she has the aura of the "good girl" that so many Thais root for in television soap operas. "Her gender, in Thailand's male-dominated politics, also serves to take the edge off her party's portrayal as representing a dangerous autocratic extreme,'' says Hasan Basar, the founder of Bangkok Public Relations.

Although her opponent, Oxford-educated Abhisit, also has soap-star looks, he is backed by the military. Top generals haven't been shy about urging voters to elect what they call "good people," a euphemism for non-Pheu Thai candidates. The military's involvement "drives people away," says Pavin Chachavalpongpun of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Singapore. "They don't appreciate the direct intervention in politics.'' It also sets up a dynamic reminiscent of Burmese politics, where powerful generals appear to bully 'The Lady.' Yingluck certainly isn't Aung San Suu Kyi, but the narrative could sway some of the undecided.

If it doesn't, Yingluck and her party are offering voters a raft of goodies: free tablet computers for one million students, a guaranteed rice price, credit cards for farmers and taxi drivers, and debt moratoriums. Economists worry that the programs will create unmanageable levels of government debt. The Democrats are offering their own populist package, but it pales in comparison to Pheu Thai's giveaways. (Read about the Thai elections one year after the protest.)

Although much is still unknown, most analysts predict that Pheu Thai will win the most seats but not an outright majority in Thailand's 500-seat House of Representatives. In that case, the military may lobby smaller parties to join a Democrat-led coalition government. Even if Pheu Thai wins an outright majority, or succeeds in putting together a coalition, uncertainty may persist. Victors have been disqualified in the past. "If the traditional elite decide to overturn the results, a new round of violent conflict may start,'' says Pavin.

As Prime Minister Yingluck could also generate conflict by granting her exiled brother amnesty, allowing him to return to Thailand. She's vowed to clear anyone charged with political crimes in the aftermath of the 2006 coup, including her brother. "That would be a mistake,'' says Pavin. Yingluck has now back-tracked, saying only that a committee will consider amnesties. Few, however, believe she won't facilitate her brother's return. "For a Thai, where family bonds and loyalty are extremely important, it is perfectly natural and 'right' for her to do as her older brother would want her to do,'' says Hasan.

The country is so politically polarized that some prominent Thai columnists express fear of a civil war between Thaksin camp (the rural and urban poor in the north and northeast, the Red shirts and those who oppose the military meddling in politics) and anti-Thaksin factions (the Democrat Party, the military, members of the conservative establishment, middle class voters, southerners, monarchists, and the Yellow Shirts). Jon Ungpakorn, a former Senator, warns of a "long and violent civil war." "The next opportunity for reconciliation may well not arrive again for many years," he wrote.

In that sense, Sunday's election may be the easy part. With so many post-vote scenarios and warring factions, the future of Thailand, once regarded as the most stable country in Southeast Asia, looks anything but bright.

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Analysis: Thai army takes sides as divisive election nears (Reuters)

BANGKOK (Reuters) – After Thailand's military removed her brother in a bloodless coup on a hot September night five years ago, the front-runner in next month's closely fought election has good reason to fear the generals will go after her.

Recent rumblings from the army suggest she should be concerned.

As Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, surges ahead in the race to become Thailand's next prime minister after elections next month, the army has cast aside its neutrality, analysts say, and looks intent on derailing her. How far they will go is unclear.

If she prevails over Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's ruling Democrat Party and forms a government, a coup is one option, though an unlikely one due to the risk of drawing tens of thousands of Thaksin's "red shirt" supporters into the streets in a reprise of last year's bloody clashes with troops.

Most analysts and diplomats suggest she may cut a deal with the army to preserve her government and to prevent a new round of street riots.

But in the days leading up to the July 3 election, the army is doing what it can to stop her momentum and foil her plans for a general amnesty that would clear the way for Thaksin to return from self-exile in Dubai, where he lives to avoid prison following a graft conviction he says was politically motivated.

Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, instrumental in the coup that toppled Thaksin and offensives to crush anti-government red-shirt street insurrections in 2009 and 2010, made a stern-faced address on two army-owned television channels last week, stressing the military would not meddle in the election.

But his message had the opposite effect.

Prayuth warned of threats against Thailand's monarchy and urged the public to vote for "good people" and to avoid a repeat of previous polls, a not-so-subtle reference to a decade of elections won by Thaksin allies.

"If you allow the election results to be the same as before, you will not get anything new and you will not see any improvement," Prayuth said.

By wading into the political fray, the army risks inflaming a sometimes-violent, five-year political crisis in which the rural and urban poor red shirts are pitted against a traditional elite of generals, royal advisers, middle-class bureaucrats and old-money families who back the ruling Democrats.

Prayuth's comments were widely seen as a move to discredit Yingluck's Puea Thai Party and stem its momentum following opinion polls that show it is likely to win the most votes in the election.

"For an army chief to plead with the voters to cast their ballots for 'good' parties and 'good' candidates is very inappropriate and, as such, he can be seen as taking sides in the upcoming election," Veera Prateepchaikul, a former editor of The Bangkok Post, wrote in the daily on Monday.

A HISTORY OF COUPS

The army has been a major force in politics since Thailand became a democracy in 1932, staging 18 coups -- some successful, some not -- and several discreet interventions in forming coalition governments, almost all with the tacit backing of Thailand's royalist establishment.

Since the last coup, the military's budget has nearly doubled and it has stood firm behind Abhisit, aiding his rise to power in a 2008 parliamentary vote and battling with pro-Thaksin red shirt demonstrators. The last face-off in April and May last year killed 91 people and wounded at least 1,800.

"The general image of the military has not exactly complemented Thailand's democratic process," said Worajet Phakhirat, a law professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University. "Making these comments so close to the election can have a negative reaction."

Kan Yuenyong, an analyst at the Siam Intelligence Unit, said the stakes are high for the military, which faces a possible purge if Yingluck becomes premier and remains influenced by Thaksin, who may seek a military reshuffle in revenge for his ouster.

"A coup is the worst-case scenario but that can't be ruled out if Thaksin regains power," he said. "The military has learned from the past and knows Thaksin will want his revenge."

Since Yingluck's May 16 nomination, the 43-year-old businesswoman has championed Thaksin's populist legacy and energised his urban and rural working class supporters, who elected his now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party twice in landslides in 2001 and 2005.

Yingluck says she will pursue reconciliation if she becomes prime minister, vowing not to interfere with the armed forces.

But not everyone is convinced. Mistrust of Thaksin runs deep and her assurances are unlikely to be enough.

TALK OF A DEAL WITH THE ARMY

Some expect the generals to intervene discreetly to prevent Puea Thai from forming a government if, as many expect, it wins the most seats in parliament but falls short of an outright majority and must form a coalition to govern.

That's where the army could wield its influence by trying to persuade smaller parties to shun Puea Thai and side with Abhisit's Democrats.

That may not work. If Puea Thai wins by a landslide, or wins comfortably, it could govern with just one medium-sized party in a coalition.

A tougher step, such as a coup, is difficult. The red shirts are far stronger and more organised than in 2006 when the generals removed Thaksin. If tanks rumbled into Bangkok, thousands would likely flood the city's streets in protest.

"Another coup is an option Prayuth doesn't want to take because more red shirts than ever before would come to shut down Bangkok," said an analyst with close knowledge of the military who requested anonymity.

"But a coup becomes likely if Prayuth gets word of a planned purge by a Puea Thai government. There might be no other option."

Sources close to Puea Thai and the military say that could be averted, and that Thaksin and the generals are discussing an arrangement under which Puea Thai could govern in return for an assurance the top brass would not be purged.

Abhisit told Reuters last week he was aware the military had been approached by Puea Thai with a view to a deal.

Thaksin declined to comment on any such arrangement, but conceded in an interview with Reuters in Dubai last Wednesday that his return to Thailand hinged on talks with the military.

Anthony Davis, a security analyst with IHS-Jane's, said a deal was almost inevitable if Puea Thai won handsomely.

But in return, he said, Puea Thai would have to scrap its plans for an amnesty to allow Thaksin's return, appoint a defense minister sensitive to the army leadership and guarantee the party would not get involved in the military's affairs.

(Additional reporting by Vithoon Amorn; Editing by Jason Szep and John Chalmers)

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Egypt PM hints at election delay (AFP)

CAIRO (AFP) – Egypt's premier has said that delaying a parliamentary election scheduled for September would give political parties more time to prepare, state media said Sunday, amid fears an early poll would benefit Islamists.

"Postponing the election would give the chance for a larger number of new political parties to develop," the state-owned Al-Ahram quoted Sharaf as saying.

However, "whatever the time of the election, we will exert all efforts to make it a success," he said.

Sharaf was answering questions at an event hosted by tycoon and politician Naguib Sawiris.

His comments come amid a mounting campaign by liberal and secular groups to delay the election until after a new constitution has been drafted.

The "Constitution First" campaign has sparked intense debate, with critics arguing that delaying the poll would keep the ruling military in place for longer.

In March, 77 percent of Egyptians voted in favour of holding elections first and having the new parliament draft a fresh consitution.

But others have argued that early elections would give the highly organised Muslim Brotherhood an unfair advantage and expressed concern that the Islamist group would have too much influence over the constitution.

Last week, more than 20 human rights groups said drafting the new charter should be the top priority.

"A new regime must take its place, and its institutions and the relationships between them must be based on a new constitution. This constitution must be drafted first, rather than building the institutions of the new order in accordance with the constitutional rules of the old regime," the groups said in a statement.

Arab League chief and presidential hopeful Amr Mussa has also thrown his weight behind calls to delay the vote.

"I am not for a postponement in the democratic process, and I believe it should start before the end of the year, but I think September is too early to hold a parliamentary election," he said.

"It's better to to start either with the election of a people's founding committee to put in place a new constitution or to hold a presidential election," he said at a government-organised "national consensus" conference.

The military, which has ruled the country since a revolt overthrew president Hosni Mubarak in February, has said the parliamentary poll will be held on schedule in September, followed by a new constitution and then a presidential vote.

The September election is expected to boost Islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, which has formed a party to contest roughly half of parliament's 508 elected seats.

Secular groups that spearheaded the revolt against Mubarak want the election postponed until they can better organise themselves into parties.

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Thai PM 'very optimistic' about winning election (AFP)

JAKARTA (AFP) – Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in Jakarta on Monday that he was "very optimistic" about winning next month's general election.

"We've had very good responses... and I think the Thai people want to move the country forward. They want to see stability and they want to see their problems addressed," he told a news conference at the World Economic Forum on East Asia in the Indonesian capital.

While the election campaign has not been smooth, it has been "orderly", Abhisit said.

"If you were in Thailand maybe a couple of months ago, there's so much speculation about whether elections could actually be held. But if you're in Thailand now, nobody is questioning that," he added.

Abhisit is in the midst of a tough electoral battle against former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's allies in the Puea Thai party, who want an amnesty for politicians who have been charged or convicted if they win the July 3 vote.

Thaksin's youngest sister, political newcomer Yingluck Shinawatra, is Puea Thai's candidate for prime minister, underscoring her brother's ongoing role in Thailand's fractured political landscape.

Her arrival on the scene has reinvigorated an opposition that just weeks ago appeared rudderless, with polls showing her party pulling ahead of Abhisit's establishment-backed Democrats.

A Puea Thai victory could pave the way for the return of Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and lives abroad to avoid a jail term for corruption. He is also charged with terrorism in relation to unrest in Bangkok last year.

Abhisit warned that an amnesty would be a threat to Thailand stability.

"We don't believe that's the country's priority, we don't believe that's the people's priorities. It can only cause more trouble, controversy and instability," he said.

Oxford-educated Abhisit came to power at the end of 2008 in a parliamentary vote and is accused by critics of having no popular mandate.

Thaksin, a former telecoms tycoon, is hailed by many rural and working-class Thais for his populist policies but loathed by the Bangkok-based elite which sees him as corrupt, authoritarian and a threat to the monarchy.

Protests by his "Red Shirt" supporters led to Thailand's worst civil violence in decades last April and May, in which more than 90 people died in clashes between the opposition street movement and security forces.

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Turkey's state TV: Ruling party wins election (AP)

ISTANBUL – Turkey's state-run television says the ruling party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won a third term in parliamentary elections.

The website of the television station, TRT, is carrying a headline that says: "Turkey decides to continue with AK Party."

AKP is the Turkish acronym of the ruling Justice and Development Party.

State TV says that with 98 percent of the results counted Sunday, the ruling party has 50 percent of the votes. The Republican People's Party, the main opposition group, has 26 percent and another opposition party, the Nationalist Action Party, has 13 percent.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey's ruling party led by a wide margin in nearly complete returns from parliamentary elections on Sunday, state-run television reported, setting the stage for a third term in which the government is expected to seek an overhaul of the military-era constitution.

However, results indicated that the Justice and Development Party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not heading for a two-thirds majority in parliament, a shortcoming that would force it to seek support for constitutional change from other political groups.

With 97 percent of votes counted, Erdogan's party had won 50 percent of the votes, TRT reported. It said the Republican People's Party, the main opposition group, had 26 percent of the vote.

TRT said another opposition party, the Nationalist Action Party, had 13 percent of the vote, signaling it could stay in parliament by crossing a 10 percent vote threshold designed to keep out smaller parties.

According to the tally, the ruling party stood to win 327 seats in the 550-seat parliament, a comfortable majority that would ensure the continuation of its single-party rule. It had 331 seats in the outgoing parliament. Lawmakers serve four-year terms.

Several thousand supporters gathered Sunday night outside the ruling party headquarters in Ankara, chanting pro-government slogans and waving Turkish flags as they awaited Erdogan, who has made it a tradition to deliver a victory speech from the building's balcony.

About 50 million Turks, or two-thirds of the population, were eligible to vote.

For the first time, voters cast ballots in transparent plastic boxes in which the yellow envelopes could be seen piling up. The measure was designed to prevent any allegations of fraud. In past elections, wooden boxes were used.

"We have spoken, and now it is time for the people to speak," Erdogan said at a polling station Sunday morning in Istanbul. "For us, this will be the most honorable decision and one that we will have to respect. As far as I know, the election process is continuing through the country without any problems."

The Anatolia news agency reported later that police detained 34 people in the southeast province of Batman for allegedly trying to coerce people into voting for the Peace and Democracy Party, a Kurdish party accused by officials of links to Kurdish rebels.

The party is fielding independent candidates in order to work around the 10 percent vote threshold for Turkey's parliament. It seeks more rights and autonomy in the southeastern strongholds of the ethnic minority, which makes up about 20 percent of Turkey's 74 million people.

Turkey, a NATO ally with a mostly Muslim population, stands out in a region buffeted by popular uprisings as a rising power with traditional Western alliances as well as growing ties in the east and elsewhere. In the past decade, the government has sharply reduced the political clout of the military, and taken some steps to ease restrictions on minorities, though reforms have slowed in recent years.

Despite its successes, Turkey's government faces opposition accusations that it seeks to consolidate power at the expense of consensus-building.

Erdogan has promised that a new constitution would include "basic rights and freedoms," replacing a constitution implemented under the tutelage of the military in 1982. However, he has provided relatively few details on a possible new draft.

The government has Islamic roots, long a source of suspicion among secular circles that once dominated Turkey and fear that Erdogan seeks to impose religion on society.

Turkey's leaders, however, describe themselves as moderates and "conservative democrats" who are committed to the ideals of Western-style democracy. After winning election in 2002, they implemented economic reforms that pulled the country out of crisis. The growth rate last year was nearly 9 percent, the second highest among G-20 nations after China.

Still, political reforms faltered in the ruling party's second term. Turkey's bid to join the European Union has stalled, partly because of opposition in key EU nations such as Germany and France. Critics point to concerns about media freedom and the Turkish government's plans for Internet filters as signs of intolerance toward views that don't conform to those of Turkey's leadership.

Four people were detained Sunday in the southeast province of Sanliurfa for allegedly voting more than once with other people's ballot papers. In the capital, Ankara, police fired in the air and used pepper spray to break up scuffles at a polling station where a group of voters wrongly accused another group of having fake ballot papers, the Anatolia agency said.

But for all of Turkey's challenges, Sunday's vote was an indicator of stability in a country that suffered fractious coalition politics and military coups in past decades. Most voting was peaceful and orderly, with large crowds gathering early to cast ballots.

"We have come to the end of a long marathon," Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the opposition Republican People's Party, said after arriving at a polling station with his wife and son. "Today is the time for a decision by the people. We will respect their decision. There is a good mood. There is a democracy feast."

___

Suzan Fraser and Gulden Alp contributed from Ankara, Turkey.

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Turkey's Election Offers a Last Chance to Integrate the Kurds (Time.com)

Sirri Sureyya Onder is neither a Kurd nor a politician. Yet, when the popular filmmaker and writer was approached by Turkey's Kurdish party to run for an Istanbul parliamentary seat in Sunday's elections, he felt he could not refuse. "This parliament has an opportunity to make history," he said, between campaign stops at coffeehouses in Zeytinburnu, a working-class district near Istanbul's airport populated by Kurds who migrated here over the past three decades years to flee fighting in the southeast. "It will be tasked with drafting a new constitution which could finally secure democratic rights and freedoms for everyone. For the first time, I feel as if I can make a difference."

With the Arab Spring having reached its doorstep in neighbouring Syria, Turkey may finally have run out of time to defer addressing the grievances of its restive Kurdish population, estimated at around 14 million. For years Ankara denied the Kurds existed - they were called mountain Turks - and banned the Kurdish language from being spoken. In 1984, the PKK took up arms in a fight for Kurdish independence, and some 45,000 people have been killed in the ensuing conflict. But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who took power in 2002, vowed to seek a political solution to the conflict, declaring in a historic speech that "the Kurdish problem is my problem". Erdogan acknowledged that the government had mismanaged relations with the Kurdish population, and promised greater democracy. (Turkey's Election: The Massive Implications of a Foregone Conclusion)

But Erdogan's initiative to allow the PKK to disarm and reintegrate were abandoned under nationalist pressure; Kurdish language reforms were stalled; and clashes between Kurdish youth and the authorities continued in the southeast. So, the Kurdish issue has returned to the top of the political agenda as Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday. "A new constitution and resolving the Kurdish problem ... are the most important jobs awaiting the new Turkish parliament," says Cengiz Candar, an influential columnist for Radikal newspaper.

The good news is that conditions for addressing Kurdish grievances have never looked so promising. Despite numerous obstacles, the country's pro-Kurdish party BDP is poised to take more seats than ever before, energised by a clever move to integrate pro-peace Turks like Onder, other minorities and more mainstream Kurds. Meanwhile, the main opposition CHP party, standard-bearer of the hawkish nationalism against which the Kurds butted heads for decades, has abandoned its longstanding pro-military line and is fielding a well-known Kurdish human rights lawyer as its deputy leader. In the current election season, politicians have been allowed to campaign using the Kurdish language for the first time ever, part of a series of reforms introduced by Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is all but guaranteed to win on Sunday.

"We are no longer afraid," says Gulcin Erdemci, 50, part of an enthusiastic crew of Kurdish women dressed in bright pink sweaters canvassing door-to-door in Zeytinburnu on behalf of Onder. "Before I could never say who I was voting for, or even wear this in public," she says, pointing to her loose white headscarf embroidered in typically Kurdish tradition. "We just want full equality."

Regardless of who wins on Sunday, the Kurds - both the BDP and the armed rebel group PKK (whose leader, Abdullah Ocalan, is serving a life sentence for treason) - have given the new government until June 15 to meet their demands for more autonomy, the right to be educated in Kurdish and an end to military operations. Already, waves of popular unrest have swept the mainly Kurdish southeast in recent months. (Why Syria and Turkey Are Suddenly Far Apart on Arab Spring Protests)

"These elections are like a referendum for the Kurds," says Mustafa Gundogdu, Turkey and Iraq officer at the London-based Kurdish Human Rights Project. "They are looking to see how many MPs they can post and what happens next. There is the question of whether this might be a last chance."

What happens next depends on the slimmest of calculuations. Prime Minister Erdogan is set to secure a third term in power, but it remains to be seen whether his party will gain the legislative supermajority that would allow it to draft a constitution without needing to compromise to win the votes of opposition parties - an alarming prospect to many given his self-professed desire to set up a presidential system like France or Russia, with greater executive powers. "For the new constitution to stick, it must be the product of a genuine consensus, including the Kurdish national movement, not a top-down imposition," says Hugh Pope, of the International Crisis Group.

Tarhan Erdem, a pollster renowned for the accuracy of his forecasts, sees the AKP falling just short of its goal of 330 out of 550 seats. Less than 330 seats would mean that while the AKP would still form a single party government, it would also be forced to compromise with the CHP and the BDP to legislate. "This would be very good," says Candar."It looks like the elections will deliver good results."

Onder is similarly optimistic. "If we can replace the war-mongering with lasting peace, then we'll all feel alot lighter," says the affable filmmaker, dragging on a cigarette at the end of twelve hours on the campaign trail. He gazes briefly out of the car window at Istanbul's bumper-to-bumper evening traffic. Then he smiles. "And you never know, if that happens I might even be able to shoot again next summer."

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Leftist Humala narrowly wins Peru election (AP)

LIMA, Peru – A leftist former army officer with questioned human rights credentials narrowly won Peru's presidency in a bitterly fought runoff with the daughter of disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori.

Ollanta Humala, 48, won Sunday after softening his radical image and disavowing the affinity for Venezuela's socialist President Hugo Chavez that fueled his defeat in a first run for the presidency five years earlier.

Not all were convinced by the makeover: Peru's stock market nose-dived Monday, falling 12 percent by midday.

Humala promises Peru's poor a greater share of the Andean nation's considerable mineral wealth and pledged in victory to honor the free market but put Peruvians first.

The former army lieutenant colonel won 51.5 percent of the vote against 48.5 percent for Keiko Fujimori, according to complete unofficial results compiled by the independent election watchdog Transparencia.

Official results, with about 90 percent of the vote counted, had Humala ahead with 51.3 percent but officials cautioned that rural districts where Humala fared better were slow in reporting.

Humala told supporters Sunday night he'd work to convert a decade-long economic boom that is the envy of Latin America into "the great motor of the social inclusion Peruvians desire." He says he'll do so by taxing windfall mining profits and exporting less natural gas so Peruvians get it cheaper.

But he has also said he won't expropriate land or nationalize industries. And he says he won't renegotiate Peru's free trade agreements or seek to rewrite the constitution, reversing himself on early campaign pledges. He says he wants to follow Brazil's market-friendly model for elevating the poor.

Rife with mudslinging and dirty tricks, the campaign was marred by doubts about both candidates' commitment to democracy.

Fujimori's father is serving a 25-year prison term for rights abuses and corruption, and many Peruvians considered her little more than his proxy. Humala has been accused of violent excesses as an army counterinsurgency unit commander in the 1990s and of encouraging a bloody uprising his brother staged in 2005 seeking to oust then-President Alejandro Toledo that cost four policemen their lives.

Keiko Fujimori, 36, did not immediately concede, instead appearing briefly before supporters Sunday night to ask them "responsibly and with prudence" await official results.

Humala narrowly lost the presidency to Alan Garcia in 2006. In that election he presented himself as a fan of Gen. Juan Velasco, the leftist dictator who expropriated land from the rich and nationalized a raft of industries during his 1968-75 rule.

This time, Humala tempered his rhetoric.

After initially vowing to renegotiate free trade agreements and rewrite the constitution "to create an economic regime with social justice as its goal" he reversed himself, pledging to instead follow Brazil's market-friendly model for elevating the poor.

Two weeks ago, he swore on the Bible to respect democracy and press freedom.

But Humala failed to win over the business elite and most of the news media, which campaigned openly against him. They fear he's a Velasco reincarnate.

As he rose in popularity, stockholders sold off shares in Lima's exchange.

Billions are at stake. Investors have pledged more than $40 billion over the next decade to develop gold, silver, copper and other mining operations in rich Andean lodes.

In a rousing victory speech Sunday to more than 10,000 supporters in central Lima, Humala said he would create jobs, build homes, and deliver running water and electricity to long-neglected backwaters.

"We've been waiting a long time for a government that really cares about the poor," he said, rather than catering to a Lima elite that sells transnationals the mineral riches that comprise more than 65 percent of Peru's export earnings.

"This has got to change, and it's for this change that I am here. That is why I got into politics," Humala said. "I'm only interested in achieving what I've offered the Peruvian people."

His base was the one in three Peruvians who are poor — in Peru's rural highlands its closer to two in three.

Jose Romero, a 58-year-old construction worker who said he was harassed for labor organizing during Alberto Fujimori's regime, was overjoyed by Humala's win and pledges to protect workers from exploitation that let employers hire people full time without paying benefits.

"We're getting everything back with him. Good jobs will come back. There won't be corruption. I believe in his word," said Romero, who is from Peru's poorest state, Huancavelica.

Both candidates promised a raft of giveaways for the poor, including free school meals and preschool care. Humala promised a government pension for all at age 65.

Exit polls gave Humala better than 70 percent of the vote in four poor highland states including Puno, where Aymara Indians who object to a planned Canadian-owned silver mine suspended a nearly monthlong highway blockade so people could vote. The protesters fear the mine will poison their water.

Fujimori did capture Lima, but by a modest margin.

Humala finished first in the election's April 10 first round, when three centrist candidates together split 45 percent of the vote. He got a big boost with the endorsement of Toledo, who finished fourth. Toledo had previously likened voting for Humala to "a jump into the abyss."

Had Toledo and the other two centrists united behind a single candidate they could have elbowed out Keiko Fujimori. But Peru is a country where personality decides elections rather than political party affiliations or ideologies. Its parties are weak, its political class considered extremely corrupt.

That opens the door for outsiders like Humala and Fujimori's father, Alberto. He vanquished hyperinflation and fanatical Shining Path rebels during his autocratic 1990-2000 presidency. A fifth of Peruvians revere the man, but his legacy of corruption hurt his congresswoman daughter. Humala harped on it.

He says he'll put crooked politicians in jail and make it easier for citizens to recall dishonest elected leaders.

Peru's best-known intellectual, 2010 Nobel literature laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, said Humala's win "saved democracy."

"What's important is that we have been freed from the return to power of a dictatorship that was terribly corrupt and bloody," he told CPN radio. "We should congratulate ourselves and celebrate."

Humala insists he'll steer Peru closer to the United States and Brazil than to Chavez's leftist camp, which includes Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, none of which currently have U.S. ambassadors.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, in Peru as an Organization of American States election observer, met with both candidates and said he didn't consider Humala another Chavez.

"He is a nationalist and an enigma with evolving views and a pragmatic streak," Richardson said. "I think he's educable and the business community should give him a chance."

___

Associated Press writers Carla Salazar and Franklin Briceno contributed to this report.

___

Frank Bajak on Twitter: http://twitter.com/fbajak.

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Left-winger Humala wins Peru election, markets plunge (Reuters)

LIMA (Reuters) – Left-wing former army commander Ollanta Humala won Peru's presidential election and vowed the poor will share in the country's new wealth but financial markets plummeted on fears that he will ruin the economy.

Humala claimed victory and results from 89 percent of ballot boxes gave him a slim but growing lead of more than 2.7 percentage points over right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori.

Peru's stock market sank more than 12 percent, while the sol currency fell 1.5 percent, prompting the central bank to offer to sell about $215 million in deposit certificates aimed at curbing the currency's fall.

Humala has dropped some of his more radical proposals since narrowly losing the last election in 2006 and senior advisers tried to reassure markets on Monday that he will run the economy prudently, but many investors simply don't trust him.

Shares in mining companies fell as much as 15 percent because Humala has said he wants to impose a windfall tax Humala on Peru's vast mining sector.

Top companies in neighboring Chile with operations in Peru also saw their shares fall sharply while Peru's sovereign bonds plunged in New York on the vote outcome.

Investors worry that Humala, who takes office on July 28, will increase state control over the economy and throw away fiscal discipline.

They are keenly awaiting his picks for finance minister and central bank chief as a sign of whether he will adopt moderate policies or push for radical change. It is not clear when Humala will start making his key appointments.

Kurt Burneo, a top economic adviser to Humala and a former central bank and finance ministry official tipped as a possible finance minister in the next government, said that those selling Peruvian assets would get burned.

"Those speculating now are simply going to lose their money because everything is very solid," Burneo told Reuters.

He said Humala guarantees counter-cyclical fiscal policy, will respect the central bank's independence as well as investments made by private companies, and will further cut Peru's debt-to-GDP ratio.

Peru is a major metals exporter and one of the world's fastest-growing economies over the past decade, but a third of its people are stuck in poverty and Humala has promised to spread around the benefits of the economic boom.

'SOCIAL INCLUSION'

"We want economic growth with social inclusion," Humala, 48, told thousands of cheering supporters at a rally in downtown Lima that stretched into the early hours of Monday. "We can build a more just Peru for everybody."

Thousands of followers danced in jubilation, chanting "Humala Presidente! and "Fujimori never again."

After losing the 2006 election, Humala toned down his anti-capitalist policies to try to win over centrist voters.

He vows to run a balanced budget, bring experienced technocrats into his government and respect foreign investors who plan to spend $40 billion on mining and oil projects in Peru in the next decade.

He also vows to give the poor a greater share of natural resource wealth and end social conflicts.

Another of Humala's chief economics advisers, Felix Jimenez, who is seen as a possible central bank chief, said the government and central bank both had instruments to fend off a rout, and insisted that investors have nothing to fear.

"Our economic proposals are totally sensible: to maintain macroeconomic equilibrium, consolidate growth and create conditions for private domestic and foreign investment growth," he told Reuters.

Fujimori, 36, was favored by business leaders but many voters rejected her because her father is serving a 25-year prison sentence for corruption and using death squads to crack down on suspected leftists when he was president in the 1990s.

Humala, who as an army commander led an unsuccessful revolt against the elder Fujimori in 2000, had hammered his rival for working in her father's authoritarian government.

Fujimori warned Humala could wreck Peru's economy by dismantling the free-market reforms begun by her father. Those reforms helped set the stage for unprecedented growth in the past decade as Peru left behind the hyperinflation and guerrilla wars of the 1980s and '90s.

Critics say Humala is still a hard-liner at heart who will take over private firms and try to change the constitution to allow himself to run for consecutive terms like his one-time mentor, Venezuela's firebrand leftist leader Hugo Chavez.

"Humala has four different manifestoes. He doesn't convince me and represents a return to militarism of the past," said 35-year-old security guard Julio Cauche.

Humala says the state must vigorously regulate the economy, although he has ruled out taking over private firms.

"It is not positive news," Alberto Bernal, head of research at BullTick Capital Markets in Miami, said of Humala's victory. "There is really no reason for an investor to be hopeful.

Humala says he has left his radical past behind and that he will only serve one term. He insists he is a moderate leftist like Brazil's former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Highly disciplined from his military days, Humala jogs around his neighborhood each morning and keeps his hair cropped short. His entourage calls him "comandante."

He is likely to forge closer ties with Brazil's center-left government, reinforcing Brazil's growing influence in South America at a time of U.S. economic stagnation.

(With reporting by Terry Wade, Patricia Velez, Marco Aquino, Simon Gardner in Lima and Manuela Badawy, Daniel Bases and Walter Brandimarte in New York; Editing by Kieran Murray)

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Portuguese vote in snap election amid economic woes

Leader of the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) Pedro Passos Coelho greets supporters on June 3 in Lisbon.The election is triggered by the resignation of Prime Minister Jose SocratesHe now serves as a caretaker prime ministerPedro Passos Coelho, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, is running against him

(CNN) -- Voters in Portugal head to the polls Sunday after months of a caretaker government and financial woes that sparked a request for an international bailout.

The early election was triggered by the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates in March after the country's parliament rejected his austerity plan intended to ease the financial crisis.

Opposition parties voted down the plan, which they said hurts the poor.

Socrates, who had threatened to resign if the plan failed, said the opposition decision hurts the country. He now serves as a caretaker prime minister.

"The obstruction from the opposition ... was taken to intolerable levels." Socrates said at the time. "It wasn't just about obstructing the government, it was about obstructing the country."

The defeated plan was the latest in a series of austerity measures aimed at resolving Portugal's financial crisis after it admitted it needed help.

In April, the Portuguese government, led by Socrates, said it had submitted an application for aid to the European Commission.

It joined other countries, including Greece and Ireland, that have required bailouts.

Socrates said the request for outside help was a last resort.

"I think we have reached the moment whereby not taking this decision would bring further risks that the country should not face," he said.

Socrates' admission came just hours after the government was forced to pay a huge premium to borrow short term cash, ratcheting up the pressure on its finances.

The cost of Portugal's borrowings has gone up drastically since Socrates resigned in March.

Portugal was due to repay more than E4 billion ($5.68 billion) to investors in April, followed by payments of almost E5 billion mid-June.

The June repayments are considered a pressure point with the added complication of the snap election Sunday.

Pedro Passos Coelho, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, is slightly ahead of Socrates in the latest poll.

CNN's Isa Soares contributed to this report.

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Ollanta Humala: The Military Man Who May Win Peru's Election (Time.com)

Much attention has been spent on the candidacy of Keiko Fujimori to be president of Peru. After all, she is the daughter of a controversial former president who now sits in prison. However, according to polls, she is running neck-and-neck with Ollanta Humala, a political figure who evokes as much controversy and, at times, hatred as the Fujimori family does.

Humala, 48, is a retired lieutenant colonel in the Peruvian Army. The military was his life for 20 years and up until 2005 he thought his service to the country would only be in the army. "I never really thought about the presidency," he insists during an interview with TIME two days before the election. "My dream was to be the commanding general of the army." However, he did enter politics, quitting his job as military attachE in Seoul, South Korea. Frightening the more privileged classes with a leftist rhetoric that conjured up images of Venezuela's Hugo ChAvez, he nevertheless came very close to winning his first presidential run in 2006, receiving 47% of the vote. This time around, he got 32% in the first round of presidential voting in April, placing first by a margin of nearly eight points and moving into Sunday's runoff. (See Ollanta's opponent, Keiko Fujimori.)

Fujimori, however, made up lost ground, took the lead in some polls for a while and is now in a dead heat with Humala. Two polls had in him first place, between one and three points ahead of the congresswoman, while two others had Fujimori up by one point. Giovanna PeNaflor, of the IMASEN polling firm, said the country has never been this politically polarized or divided. She said the election is anyone's game, because "support is fragile. A large number of voters are voting against a candidate instead of for one."

While Humala is defined as center-left and Fujimori as center-right, the two have very similar ideas when it comes to bread-and-butter issues. They both offer a long list of social programs, including free day care, scholarships for the best high school students and assistance to senior citizens. In terms of economic policy, both say they will pay for part of their platforms by levying a windfall tax on mining, the motor of Peru's fast-growing economy, and by attracting more foreign investment. (See why same-sex marriages will influence the race.)

During the campaign, Humala hammered at his opponent over her father's regime - its legacy of corruption and human rights abuse - and the fact that many of his advisors are now her advisors. Humala has made great fun of the fact that the former president's private nurse at his specially built prison cell ran for Congress on his daughter's ticket. In their only official face off, a testy debate on May 29, Fujimori snapped at Humala, saying if he wanted to debate her father he should go to the police barracks where he is incarcerated.

Humala also has problems because of his links to a President - but this one isn't in Peru or even Peruvian. That would be Venezuela's ChAvez. Learning from incumbent President Alan GarcIa's successful run-off against Humala in 2006, the Fujimori campaign has accused the ex-military man of being a puppet of ChAvez. There certainly was a political affinity between Humala and ChAvez in 2006, with the Venezuelan president taking shots at GarcIa during the race. This time around, however, Humala has chosen a new mentor, looking to Brazilian former president, Luiz InAcio Lula da Silva, and the example of Peru's hugely successful neighbor for an economic model.

The U.S. government appears to have taken sides, with a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs Roger Noriega, repeating local allegations that ChAvez has financed Humala's current campaign. "I categorically deny this. It is irresponsible for an ex-diplomat to be making these kinds of allegations three days before Peruvians vote," Humala told TIME. Noriega, like Peruvians who have made similar accusations, did not produce evidence. (See why there might be no good choice in Peru's election.)

Peruvians opposed to Humala see similarities to ChAvez. Humala shot to fame in October 2000 when he led a small band of soldiers in a southern barracks in a revolt against his rival's father who was then the president and already reeling from a massive corruption scandal that would eventually end his rule. ChAvez's political career began in much the same way in the 1990s. Humala, who was then jailed and dismissed from the army, said that action was simply aimed at getting rid of a corrupt president and nothing more. "The only thing I wanted after the uprising was to rejoin the army and continue with my career. I had no political intentions," he told TIME.

But there may be another precedent that Humala may repeat. If he does win on June 5, Humala will be in the footsteps of the only other Peruvian military officer who was democratically elected president. Luis SAnchez Cerro led a military coup in the 1930s and was a military attachE to France. He returned to Peru and was elected president. Humala was reinstated into the army in 2001 after his attempted coup and then named military attachE to France before he went on his brief interlude in South Korea. Instead of being a ChAvez imitator, Humala could very well be replicating SAnchez Cerro.

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FIFA election to go on despite scandal

Joseph S. Blatter, President of FIFA talks during the 61st FIFA Congress Opening Ceremony in Zurich, Switzerland, on May 31NEW: German football chief says the awarding of the World Cup to Qatar should be re-examinedFIFA president Sepp Blatter is the only candidate running in the electionSoccer associations urge the world football governing body to delay the vote FIFA chooses who hosts the World Cup every four years

(CNN) -- The election for the president of FIFA will go on as scheduled Wednesday despite calls from powerful football associations for a delay over a corruption scandal.

Incumbent FIFA President Sepp Blatter is the only one running to head the world football governing body.

Blatter said Monday night that the organization was not in crisis after two top officials were suspended amid ethics concerns.

One of the officials, Mohamed Bin Hammam, was the only contender against Blatter for the presidency.

Football associations urged FIFA on Tuesday to delay the vote.

"This has been a very damaging time for the reputation of FIFA and therefore the whole of football," said David Bernstein, chairman of the English Football Association

The Scottish Football Association echoed the call.

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"The events of the last two days, in particular, have made any election unworkable," SFA head Stewart Reagan said in a statement.

Sponsors of international soccer including Visa, Coca-Cola and Adidas have warned that the ethics scandal is hurting the sport.

"The current situation is clearly not good for the game," a Visa spokesman told CNN Tuesday, echoing comments from other companies that pay to have their logos at the World Cup and other major soccer events. The Visa spokesman declined to be named.

"The negative tenor of the public debate around FIFA at the moment is neither good for football nor for FIFA," Adidas chief communications officer Jan Runau said.

Sponsor Emirates airlines said it was "disappointed" by the "issues around the administration" of FIFA, and Coca-Cola said Monday that the ethics allegations were "distressing and bad for the sport."

The concerns came as Blatter shrugged off corruption allegations within FIFA and said he would press ahead with his bid to be re-elected as president for the fourth time.

The FIFA ethics committee on Sunday suspended Bin Hammam of Qatar, along with fellow leading official Jack Warner.

Bin Hammam was a major influence in Qatar's surprising victory in winning the right to host the 2022 World Cup finals.

He and Warner have been accused of offering cash gifts to national associations in return for pro-Bin Hammam votes in the presidential election.

Warner and Bin Hammam both deny wrongdoing.

FIFA is the body that decides where soccer's quadrennial World Cup will be held, among other responsibilities.

The head of the German Football Federation said the awarding of the World Cup to Qatar should be re-examined in the wake of the scandal.

"Especially regarding the awarding of the World Cup 2022 to Qatar, there has been repeated speculation and corruption allegations," Theo Zwanziger said in an interview posted on the league's website Wednesday.

"Even the FIFA secretary general had critical views of the financial possibilities of Qatar, which he noted in an e-mail, even though that may have been phrased in a very casual way. That is why I believe that the awarding of this World Cup should be re-examined."

CNN's David Wilkinson, Ben Wyatt, James Montague, Frederik Pleitgen and Aaron Akin c ontributed to this report.

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Berlusconi suffers local election defeat

Political analysts say the local elections were a referendum on scandal-hit Italian Prime Minister Silvio BerlusconiLeft-wing candidates lead mayoral votes in Milan and NaplesMilan is Berlusconi's hometown and his political strongholdAnalysts say the local elections are a referendum on BerlusconiADDITIONAL SNAPSHOT LINK

Rome (CNN) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's ruling coalition has suffered a major defeat in local elections in Milan and Naples, with voters backing left-wing candidates in both cities.

Milan's turn to the left is a powerful setback for Berlusconi. Milan is his hometown and his political stronghold, and it has been led by a center-right mayor for the past two decades

In Milan, official voting results issued Monday by the Italian Interior Ministry gave the left-wing candidate, Giuliano Pisapia, about 55% of the vote over the incumbent mayor and center-right candidate Letizia Moratti, who had nearly 45% in Sunday's balloting. In Naples the left-wing candidate, Lugi De Magistris, was winning with 65% of the vote against the 34% of the center-right candidate, Gianni Lettieri. Whichever candidate winds up with more than 51% wins becomes the new major.

Supporters of leading candidates in both Milan and Naples began celebrating their apparent victories even before the final official voting count was over.

Political analysts have said that these local elections were a referendum on the Italian premier, who has been battling to hold his coalition together over the past six months as he fought various corruption trials, as well as a current trial in which he faces charges of abuse of power and prostitution with an underage teenager. That trial resumes tomorrow in Milan.

The voting was the second round of the process. The shock, many say, came two weeks ago, May 14 and 15, when the first ballot round took place and it became clear that his hometown had been lost or was at serious risk.

The Italian premier was on a two-day visit to Romania on Monday and had not released any comments on the election results, But many of his party members, including a minister, have said that this is a time for reflection.

An editorial in Italian leading newspaper,Corriere della Sera, Monday summed it up:

"The premier has already faced the worst-case scenario. His party looses in Milan and in Naples. A double blow with strong political consequences, both real and of the country's image. Is he worried? They (his political aides) assure us NO. or at least, no more. ....his mind is already in tomorrow."

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Berlusconi faces high-stakes local election in Milan (Reuters)

ROME (Reuters) – Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi risks losing his northern power base of Milan to the left for the first time in two decades after local elections that have shown just how fragile his center-right coalition is.

Around 6 million Italians are eligible to vote in mayoral contests in 90 towns and six provinces on Monday, but the focus is squarely on the main battlegrounds in the financial capital Milan and the southern port of Naples.

Voting began at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Monday with results expected in the evening after the polls close at 1300 GMT.

With the government preparing to bring forward plans to slash the budget deficit by some 40 billion euros ($57 billion) after ratings agency Standard and Poor's cut its outlook for Italy's A+ rating to "negative" from "stable," the stakes are high.

Defeat in his hometown of Milan would be a serious blow for a premier already weakened by a series of sex scandals, corruption trials and a sluggish economy and could call into question his government's ability to push through painful cuts.

Despite mountainous public debt of about 120 percent of gross domestic product, Italy has largely avoided the financial market turmoil seen in Greece and Portugal but the S&P warning earlier this month was a reminder of the price of inaction.

"This is the real dilemma. Will the current government be able to manage it?" business daily Il Sole 24 Ore asked in an editorial on Monday.

Berlusconi suffered a drubbing in the first round of voting on May 15 and 16, when an uninspired center left easily held on to power in Turin and Bologna and forced the center right into run-offs in Naples and Milan, its longtime stronghold.

A loss would almost certainly deepen a rift with his main ally, the Northern League, and could provoke challenges to his otherwise unquestioned leadership of the center right, although senior ministers have ruled out any change of course before the next national elections in 2013.

"I don't see any possibility of an alternative government. And I don't think anyone wants early elections," Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa, one of Berlusconi's most faithful lieutenants, told daily newspaper La Stampa.

"ISLAMIC GYPSYLAND"

In Milan, where Berlusconi made his business fortune and launched his political career, outgoing center-right mayor Letizia Moratti trailed with 41.6 percent of the first-round vote against leftist Giuliano Pisapia's 48 percent.

"I have seen the climate is changing, Milan is really changing," Milan resident Cinzia Zarotti said after she cast her vote on Monday.

Regional issues including transport and the chronic garbage crisis in Naples have weighed on voters' choices but the flailing national economy has overshadowed the polls.

Italy has been one of the euro zone's most sluggish economies for over a decade, with more than a quarter of its youth unemployed and the average Italian poorer than he or she was 10 years ago.

Berlusconi's government last month was forced to trim its growth forecast for the year to 1.1 percent from 1.3 percent and cut next year's outlook to 1.3 percent from 2.0 percent.

S&P's lowered its outlook on Italy for failing to cut its debt and boost growth, although worries of an immediate impact on the markets eased after the Treasury sold long-term bonds near the top of its target range on Monday.

After being punished for initially characterizing the vote as a referendum on his popularity and policies, Berlusconi has since blanketed the airwaves with trademark tirades against his longtime enemies: the left and "communist" magistrates.

Milan will become an "Islamic gypsyland" if the left wins, he predicted. Leftist voters lacked a brain anyway, he said, prompting Internet spoofs and a lawsuit from an offended voter.

A rant against Italian magistrates to a surprised U.S. President Barack Obama at the Group of Eight summit in Deauville, France prompted Economy Undersecretary Daniela Melchiorre, a former magistrate, to resign in protest.

(Additional reporting by Roberto Rossi in Milan; Editing by Louise Ireland and Philippa Fletcher)

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Saleh calls for early election as Yemenis protest (Reuters)

SANAA (Reuters) – Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh called Friday for early elections in an apparent bid to stave off Gulf and Western pressure to leave office, as thousands rallied for and against his three-decade rule.

Saleh has twice backed out of a Gulf Arab-brokered transition deal, most recently last Wednesday, despite diplomatic wrangling by U.S., Gulf and European officials.

Washington and Riyadh, both targets of foiled attacks by al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing, are keen to end a stalemate that has pushed fractious Yemen further onto the brink of chaos and could give the militant network more room to operate.

Saleh in March called for a presidential election by the end of this year, but in his Friday speech he did not give any time frame or details on a plan for an election, leaving some skeptical it may be a tactic to buy time.

"We call for an early presidential election to prevent bloodshed, to protect our family dignity and for a smooth democratic path," he told a cheering crowd of tens of thousands of supporters waving his picture and Yemeni flags.

Security analyst Theodore Karasik, of the Dubai-based INEGMA group, said: "I think it is a ploy to further delay the inevitable, to make it look like he is trying to leave power, but I don't think that is his full intention."

But Saleh appeared to lay the groundwork for his followers to prepare to relinquish some control over government.

"Your General People's Congress will remain both in power and out of power and they will educate them (the opposition) in how to be a responsible opposition. No cutting roads, no cutting tongues, no treachery."

Protesters are increasingly frustrated their three months of daily protests have failed to dislodge Saleh. They have begun blocking roads and staging mass strikes that have ground commerce to a halt in several cities.

Yemen also faces severe power and fuel crises since tribesmen blockaded the oil- and gas-producing Maarib province a few weeks ago. Loss of its exports, the government's main source of income, are likely costing Yemen some $3 million a day.

GULF BLOC MEETS SUNDAY

Gulf foreign ministers are planning to meet Sunday to discuss Yemen's political crisis, but have made no mention of another deal signing, although Yemeni officials in the opposition and government said they may try again to ink the twice-thwarted deal Sunday.

In the capital Sanaa and Taiz, to the south, protesters called on Saleh to end his nearly 33 years in power.

"Zayani, Zayani, we need another president," they shouted, referring to Abdullatif al-Zayani, secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), who has headed mediation efforts.

Saleh first refused to sign the GCC deal in April when he said he would only sign in his capacity as ruling party leader, not president. Last Wednesday he backed out in objection to the opposition's inclusion of a politician he did not want to be among those who would sign the deal.

Yemen, where half the 23-million people own a gun, and already facing regional rebellions, has become a concern for regional stability among its Gulf neighbors, particularly neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia, and the United States, which has seen Yemen as an ally against al Qaeda.

In his widely anticipated speech on U.S. policy in the Arab world, President Barack Obama said Thursday that Saleh needed to "follow through on his commitment to transfer power."

On the streets of Sanaa, Obama's words received mixed reviews. Some protesters were optimistic that his call for a transition meant the U.S. president was on their side. Others argued he did not go far enough in confronting Saleh.

"The American position is still weak toward President Saleh. We were waiting for Obama to call on Saleh to leave immediately," Samir Abdullah said.

(Additional reporting by Sara Anabtawi in Dubai; Writing by Erika Solomon)

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Giffords Intern Loses Student-Government Election

Published April 23, 2011

| Associated Press

PHOENIX –  The intern who helped save U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' life after she was shot more than three months ago has lost the election to become student government president at the University of Arizona.

The Arizona Republic reports that 21-year-old Daniel Hernandez was easily beaten by James Allen in Thursday's special election.

Allen received 66 percent of the 1,986 ballots cast. Hernandez placed second with 21 percent.

The special election was called after Hernandez and Allen were disqualified from the general election in March for campaign violations.

Hernandez won national acclaim for trying to stop Giffords' bleeding at the Tucson shooting by applying pressure to her gunshot wound until first responders arrived.

Hernandez didn't immediately return a phone call and email from The Associated Press on Saturday.

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Washington State Online Election Doesn't Click

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The largest e-vote ever held in the United States for public office can boast a turnout of 0.23 percent.

The race for conservation district supervisor in King County, Wash., was conducted almost entirely online, with votes able to be cast from Feb. 15 to March 15. With 1 million registered voters eligible to cast a ballot, 2,299 did.

"I think it was a raging success," said Sara Hemphill of the King Conservation District, "even though we had fewer voters than we did last year."

Voting in America has traditionally been a very public show of democracy from the lines at polling places to the poring over ballots in front of campaign observers and the media. Who can forget Florida's hanging chads in the 2000 presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore or Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write-in spelling bee in Alaska last year?

Election officials are always looking for something better, cheaper and able to create more voter participation. So even though the numbers were down in King County, the convenience factor is way up. 

"Last year I had to drive (to the polls) and probably wait about 40 minutes because there was a line out the library," said voter Cory Huskinson, "This year I just quickly did it online."

Three supervisors serving three year terms means the conservation district race is conducted every year. This year's 2,299 electronic ballots are roughly half as many as were cast the old-fashioned way in person at the polls last year for the same office. The winning candidate, Eric Nelson, earned 1,292 votes. 

One selling point for online elections is that they are much less expensive to conduct than either voting at polls or voting by mail. The King Conservation District, however, spent the same on the online election as their traditional elections.

There were also some security hoops to jump through. Voters had to use security codes which were emailed to them after they signed up to vote online. They also were required to mail, fax, scan and email signatures to Election Trust, the private company paid to conducted the election.

The purpose was to allow workers to compare their signature to their voter registration signature.

John Bodin from Election Trust says the system worked. 

"With the proper due diligence on the front end and eyeballs on the servers during the election," Bodin said. "You can ensure that the data transaction will be secure end to end."

Not everyone is convinced. Computer security experts say the biggest threat of fraud is not from hackers, but an inside job. 

"If I compromise a computer, I control all the activities that go on in a computer," said Samuel Bucholtz of Casaba Security. "So it doesn't matter what you're doing or how you're trying to vote."

Election Trust officials insist there is proper oversight. The government agency overseeing the election has full access to their programs and codes and can be watching as the votes come in.

Interestingly, those charged by the government to monitor the election are required to sign non-disclosure agreements with the company hired to run the election because the programs are patented and keeping them from competitors is paramount for Election Trust and others.

That worries Bev Harris who started BlackBox Voting.Org when electronic voting machines started to be used. 

"The public must be able to see and authenticate (elections) without the need for special expertise," Harris said. "The minute you say, 'Well, you have to have a special expertise,' you transfer control from the many to the few."

Despite the concerns, Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed sees plenty of potential. He says online elections can be done securely and he has supported bills that would make it possible for military personnel who are overseas to vote that way. The bills died in the Legislature.

Europe is actually ahead of the U.S. on online voting. Estonia has been using it for public office elections for years. In France, then-presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy was nominated by his party in a partially online vote. He went on to win the general election. 

Other countries, however, are slamming on the breaks. A German court ruled online elections still have too many security questions and not enough public oversight to be allowed.

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Sarawak Election 2011

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Sarawak elections to pose test for ruling party and opposition

SARAWAK: The 2008 Malaysian general election was a setback for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition. It lost its two thirds parliamentary majority and control of five state assemblies. The coalition, however, maintained its dominance in East Malaysia.

Known as “fixed deposit” states, Sabah and Sarawak helped secure 53 of 58 seats in parliament for the BN.

The 2011 Sarawak elections will focus on 71 seats in the state legislature.

Barisan currently holds 63 seats while the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition controls seven constituencies. An independent party manages the last remaining seat.

However, the ruling coalition is not expected to lose its majority in Sarawak.

Dr Ooi Kee Beng, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said: “Most people don’t believe the BN will lose its two thirds or power in Sarawak, mainly because of the rural support that it has.

“In rural areas, you tend to have a more hierarchic structure. Social pressure on voting along with the majority in your neighbourhood is also much stronger.”

Analysts said at least 20 seats are in the balance.

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Wis. top court election adds fuel to 'powder keg'

By Andy Manis, AP

Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg declared victory Wednesday with a 204-vote margin.

EnlargeCloseBy Andy Manis, AP

Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg declared victory Wednesday with a 204-vote margin.

Lake Mills, population 2,070, was the last precinct to report results of Tuesday's election for state Supreme Court justice between Justice David Prosser and challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg. When those ballots were finally counted, Kloppenburg led by an unofficial margin of just 204 votes out of more than 1.4 million ballots cast.

Kloppenburg claimed victory, but her paper-thin victory could be erased by a recount, so the ultimate winner may not be known for weeks, or longer. Prosser did not immediately request a recount but has until April 20 to do so.

Republican Gov. Scott Walker downplayed the significance of the election, saying it was skewed by exceptional turnout in the liberal cities of Madison and Milwaukee.

Democrats warned the results were only a sign of what's to come. Recall efforts have been launched against 16 state senators from both parties for their support or opposition to the bill eliminating most public employees' collective bargaining rights.

"We are sitting on a political powder keg in Wisconsin, and I don't see it becoming any less explosive soon," said Mike McCabe, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a government watchdog group.

McCabe said many people assumed Prosser would have an easy victory after the 13-year incumbent won a four-way primary Feb. 15 by about a 30-point margin.

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Clinton 'Concerned' by Ivory Coast Violence, Calls on Election Loser to Step Down

Clinton 'Concerned' by Ivory Coast Violence, Calls on Election Loser to Step Down - FoxNews.com Skip to main content: Latino/SBC/Fox Business (Home/Slideshow/Interactive: Fox News/SBC/Latino/Fox Business) Skip to main content: Fox News/Fox Business (Article Page: Fox News/SBC/Latino/Fox Business)

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