Thailand's Election: A Test of Its Fragile Democracy (Time.com)

Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's exiled former Prime Minister, likes to compare himself to Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's pro-democracy movement. Both are in conflict with their country's military-backed leaders. But that's where the similarities end. Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize winner, whereas Thaksin backed two violent anti-government protests. Suu Kyi spent more than decade under house arrest for her political convictions, while Thaksin fled rather than do time for corruption. Suu Kyi is a champion of democracy, Thaksin's critics call him an autocrat.

But as Thailand heads toward a national election this weekend, Thaksin looks set to get a new lease on his political life. The Pheu Thai party, which he controls from Dubai, is poised to defeat incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party. And the person he can thank for that turnaround is the woman he hand-picked to lead and who may become Thailand's first female prime minister: Yingluck Shinawatra - his youngest sister. (Read about the tumultuous Thai election.)

Although Yingluck Shinawatra has never held office, the 44-year old executive has emerged as this election's brightest political star. She either carries the sheen of the Shinawatra name or the taint of Thaksin, depending upon a Thai's political point of view. Many aren't sure what to think; Polls show between 20% and 40% of voters remain undecided. The split reflects lingering anger about the violent protests that rocked Bangkok last year. To sway voters, Yingluck has cast herself as a pacifist: "As I am a female I do not encourage violence. I will unite Thailand,'' she told Time.

Indeed, Yingluck displays none of her brother's notorious temper. With her soft physicality, photogenic looks and ever-present smile, she has the aura of the "good girl" that so many Thais root for in television soap operas. "Her gender, in Thailand's male-dominated politics, also serves to take the edge off her party's portrayal as representing a dangerous autocratic extreme,'' says Hasan Basar, the founder of Bangkok Public Relations.

Although her opponent, Oxford-educated Abhisit, also has soap-star looks, he is backed by the military. Top generals haven't been shy about urging voters to elect what they call "good people," a euphemism for non-Pheu Thai candidates. The military's involvement "drives people away," says Pavin Chachavalpongpun of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Singapore. "They don't appreciate the direct intervention in politics.'' It also sets up a dynamic reminiscent of Burmese politics, where powerful generals appear to bully 'The Lady.' Yingluck certainly isn't Aung San Suu Kyi, but the narrative could sway some of the undecided.

If it doesn't, Yingluck and her party are offering voters a raft of goodies: free tablet computers for one million students, a guaranteed rice price, credit cards for farmers and taxi drivers, and debt moratoriums. Economists worry that the programs will create unmanageable levels of government debt. The Democrats are offering their own populist package, but it pales in comparison to Pheu Thai's giveaways. (Read about the Thai elections one year after the protest.)

Although much is still unknown, most analysts predict that Pheu Thai will win the most seats but not an outright majority in Thailand's 500-seat House of Representatives. In that case, the military may lobby smaller parties to join a Democrat-led coalition government. Even if Pheu Thai wins an outright majority, or succeeds in putting together a coalition, uncertainty may persist. Victors have been disqualified in the past. "If the traditional elite decide to overturn the results, a new round of violent conflict may start,'' says Pavin.

As Prime Minister Yingluck could also generate conflict by granting her exiled brother amnesty, allowing him to return to Thailand. She's vowed to clear anyone charged with political crimes in the aftermath of the 2006 coup, including her brother. "That would be a mistake,'' says Pavin. Yingluck has now back-tracked, saying only that a committee will consider amnesties. Few, however, believe she won't facilitate her brother's return. "For a Thai, where family bonds and loyalty are extremely important, it is perfectly natural and 'right' for her to do as her older brother would want her to do,'' says Hasan.

The country is so politically polarized that some prominent Thai columnists express fear of a civil war between Thaksin camp (the rural and urban poor in the north and northeast, the Red shirts and those who oppose the military meddling in politics) and anti-Thaksin factions (the Democrat Party, the military, members of the conservative establishment, middle class voters, southerners, monarchists, and the Yellow Shirts). Jon Ungpakorn, a former Senator, warns of a "long and violent civil war." "The next opportunity for reconciliation may well not arrive again for many years," he wrote.

In that sense, Sunday's election may be the easy part. With so many post-vote scenarios and warring factions, the future of Thailand, once regarded as the most stable country in Southeast Asia, looks anything but bright.

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Panetta warns Afghan gains 'fragile'

Leon Panetta, head of the Central Intelligence Agency, will replace Defense Secretary Robert Gates if confirmed.The Senate Armed Services Committee questions the defense secretary nominee Panetta, 72, refuses to say how quickly the U.S. military should withdraw from AfghanistanPanetta says any military withdrawal should be "conditions-based"Panetta addresses a range of topics, including Libya, Iraq, and Pentagon fiscal constraints

Washington (CNN) -- Defense Secretary nominee Leon Panetta asserted Thursday that the United States and its allies have made "great progress" in the nearly decade-long war in Afghanistan, but warned that recent gains are "fragile and reversible."

He refused to indicate how fast the U.S. military should start any withdrawal from Afghanistan. The rate at which troops should be withdrawn should be "conditions-based," he said.

Greater progress needs to be made, particularly in terms of Afghan self-governance, so that ultimately officials in Kabul "can take responsibility for that country," he added.

The ultimate goal in Afghanistan, he stressed, is to ensure "sufficient stability" in that country so it can never again be a safe haven for al Qaeda or other extremist elements.

Panetta, currently head of the Central Intelligence Agency, made his remarks during his Pentagon confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Obama administration officials have said U.S. troops will start withdrawing from Afghanistan in July, and that a military handover should be completed in 2014. While the war remains largely unpopular within the United States, conservative critics have complained that a firm withdrawal timeline will undermine U.S. efforts.

Aside from the war in Afghanistan, Panetta's confirmation hearing touched on a wide range of topics, including NATO's engagement in Libya, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, the global fight against terrorism, and Pentagon budgets in an age of fiscal austerity.

Senators from both sides of the aisle offered effusive praise for the 72-year-old nominee, who pledged to be a "tireless advocate for our troops and their families."

"This is a time of historic change," Panetta said. "We are no longer in the Cold War. This is the Blizzard War -- a blizzard of challenges that draws speed and intensity from rapidly developing technologies and the rising number of powers on the world stage."

"Despite the times we live in, there is reason to be confident," Panetta told the committee. The recent operation that killed Osama bin Ladin "has given us the greatest chance since 9/11 to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda permanently. We must keep up the pressure."

Panetta called the U.S. relationship with Pakistan, the site of bin Laden's hideout, "difficult" but "critical." While Pakistan has proven to be a safe haven for extremists, a positive relationship with authorities in Islamabad is vital to the mission in Afghanistan, he warned.

Close ties with Pakistan are also critical due to the necessity of securing that country's nuclear arsenal, he noted.

On Libya, Panetta expressed optimism that, if NATO operations continue, strongman Moammar Gadhafi will be forced from power.

"We have seen the regime weaken significantly. We have seen the opposition make gains," he said. "I think there are some signs that that if we continue the pressure, if we stick with it, that ultimately Gadhafi will step down."

He agreed, in response to a question from the committee's chairman, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Michigan, that the use of controversial enhanced interrogation techniques such as waterboarding during President George W. Bush's administration "crossed the line."

Panetta also warned of a "strong likelihood" that "the next Pearl Harbor could be a cyber attack."

"We are now the target of increasing attacks that go after our (computer-based) systems," he said.

Panetta, virtually certain to be confirmed, has been described as the consummate Washington insider. He took over at the CIA in February 2009, and previously served as chief of staff to President Bill Clinton between 1994 and 1997. Prior to that, the California Democrat served as director of Clinton's Office of Management and Budget, a position requiring mastery of tricky fiscal situations and an understanding of the federal government's sprawling bureaucracies.

Panetta also served in the House of Representatives from 1977 to 1993, a period in which he established deep congressional ties. His friendships and institutional knowledge of Capitol Hill, observers believe, will be critical in terms of helping to mold congressional opinion and balance Pentagon priorities against growing deficit fears.

"I am very aware that we must be highly disciplined in how we spend the taxpayer's precious resources," Panetta said Thursday. "I do not believe that we have to choose between strong fiscal discipline and strong national defense. We owe it to our citizens to provide both."

If confirmed, Panetta would replace retiring Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has led the Pentagon since December 2006. President Barack Obama has nominated Gen. David Petraeus, currently head of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, to replace Panetta at the CIA.

CNN