Thailand enters calm before election storm (Reuters)

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Political campaigning in Thailand drew to a close Saturday, taking a day to cool off before an election which could exacerbate the country's six-year-old political crisis just as easily as end it.

Opinion polls point to a win by the opposition Puea Thai (For Thais) party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, over the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Thaksin, who lives in self-appointed exile in Dubai after being ousted by the military in 2006, looms large over the election, popular with the red shirts supporters of Puea Thai and hated by the Democrat elite who want him to stand trial for corruption.

The risk of turbulence lies in the margin of a Puea Thai win and the reaction of the red shirts, mostly rural and urban poor whose protests last year prompted a bloody crackdown. Key as well will be the response of the military, which has a history of intervening in Thai politics.

"It's almost certain the Puea Thai will win, the question is by how much," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

If they win by a landslide, it would be a "slap in the face" of the Democrats, but would likely rile the military which has a record of launching coups when riled, he said.

Yingluck told reporters Saturday she was confident Puea Thai would win more than 250 seats, an outright majority, while Abhisit appealed to supporters to give the Democrats the same margin of victory.

"What we would like to see is a clean and fair election," Yingluck said, adding that it was premature to talk about a coalition with any other party.

It also is possible the Puea Thai party has reached a deal with the military -- allowing them to rule in return for not pursuing the generals responsible for last year's violence, which killed 91 people, mostly red shirts.

If the margin of the win is small, Puea Thai would have to garner the support of smaller parties. Their backing could be contingent on Thaksin serving jail time for corruption as part of any plan to bring him back from self-exile in Dubai.

There also is the possibility of the Democrats teaming up with smaller parties to get the necessary majority, an outcome sure to bring the red shirts back out on to the streets.

At a stadium packed with about 20,000 people, many under umbrellas in driving rain, Yingluck Friday called for reconciliation and promised a probe of last year's violence.

"If only you give this woman a chance to serve you," she said.

Abhisit warned about 15,000 voters not to believe her.

"They say they will move Thailand forward, but I don't believe they will do so on your behalf," he said, before assuring supporters he would heal rifts in Thai society.

Amnesty International called on whoever wins to end repression, unlawful use of lethal force and intimidation of peaceful dissidents.

Election days in Thailand are traditionally dry affairs, with alcohol sales banned from 6 pm Saturday to midnight on Sunday and the go-go bars closed.

A spoof Web site called "Not the Nation" wondered how the city's foreigners would cope, and whether Thai police were bracing for a weekend of violence from "angry, sober, alcoholic expatriates."

(Additional reporting by Vithoon Amorn; Editing by Brian Rhoads)

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Thailand: Thaksin Picks Sister for Prime Minister Race (Time.com)

On the one-year anniversary of a bloody confrontation between Red Shirt protesters and Thai government security forces that left scores dead and Bangkok in flames, the opposition Pheu Thai party listed 10 Red Shirt leaders among its candidates for parliament in national elections scheduled for July 3. But the controversy over Red Shirt leaders running for office was overshadowed by the party's choice for its lead candidate: Yingluck Shinawatra, who Pheu Thai hopes will become Thailand's first woman Prime Minister, should the party prevail at the polls.

Thailand's first female candidate for Prime Minister drew mixed reactions, however, from Thai women's groups. "There are as many opinions about her candidacy among women's groups as there are women's groups," says Maytinee Bhongsvej of the Association for the Promotion of the Status of Women, a nongovernmental organization. While some are thrilled that a woman will finally have the chance to win the highest elected office in the land, others are disquieted because the 43-year-old businesswoman has no political experience. Her sole qualification for the nation's top job is that she is the youngest sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Prime Minister deposed in a bloodless coup in 2006, and who is Pheu Thai's de facto leader. (See pictures of last year's Red Shirt protests.)

Thaksin, who lives in Dubai after fleeing a prison term for a corruption conviction, personally chose Yingluck to lead the party, calling his younger sister his "clone." Pheu Thai has already announced its key policy will be to issue an amnesty for anyone charged or convicted for political crimes after the coup. Opponents have labeled this an attempt to whitewash Thaksin, and incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has warned that such a move would spark a new round of street protests by those opposed to Thaksin. In 2008, when Thaksin engineered the appointment of his brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, as Prime Minister, anti-Thaksin protesters spilled into the streets. However, despite his ouster and conviction for corruption, Thaksin remains popular with many poor people for his populist policies. He has promised government-issued credit cards for farmers and taxi drivers, free iPads for every student, and debt forgiveness for farmers if Pheu Thai wins and he is allowed to return to Thailand.

Yingluck's fortunes are literally tied to her brother's. Her business career consisted exclusively of a series of executive positions in telecommunications and real estate companies owned by Thaksin. With her lack of political experience, Pheu Thai deputy leaders have said they will not allow her to debate Prime Minister Abhisit, who is running for re-election.

Maytinee says Yingluck will need to be judged on her own merits as a candidate. "We have to wait and see what kind of decisions she makes and judge her on that. We should respect her for what she does," she says. But some voters and commentators are questioning whether her decisions and actions can reasonably be expected to be her own. In an editorial on Wednesday, the Bangkok Post warned that "more voters will be repelled than attracted if they see her as a 'clone' of fugitive ex-Prime Minister Thaksin. It would be unacceptable if ... she were seen as taking orders or directions from unelected entities, let alone a felon living overseas." (Read a TIME Q&A with Thaksin Shinawatra.)

By early afternoon on Thursday, Red Shirt protesters were erecting a stage an intersection in Bangkok's business district they occupied for two months in 2010 while demanding Abhisit and his government resign and call new elections. Thousands of Red Shirts were expected to converge on the intersection by late afternoon for a rally and ceremony marking the first anniversary of the crackdown. During their two months of protest, 92 people were killed and about 2,000 were injured. A few of the casualties were soldiers, but the overwhelming majority were Red Shirts or bystanders caught in the crossfire. A report by Human Rights Watch blamed the violence on both the security forces for using excessive measures, and the Red Shirts, whose armed paramilitary wing fired scores of rocket-propelled grenades at a variety of targets. Businesses, which suffered heavy losses and damages during last year's protest, voiced exasperation at the return of the Red Shirts, with the Bangkok Post reporting 1,100 cancellations at hotels in the area.

The wisdom of the Pheu Thai party, including among its candidates Red Shirt leaders who encouraged their followers to burn down Bangkok last year, was open to debate. While the Red Shirts were able to draw over 100,000 protesters at times, a recent poll by the Asia Foundation showed that only 13% of those surveyed identified themselves as Red Shirt supporters. Various polls gauging the election prospects of the country's political parties have put undecided voters at between 34% and 53%, indicating that the race could be close.

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