Yemen's Saleh to reappear as violence grips south (Reuters)

RIYADH/SANAA (Reuters) – Wounded Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, not seen in public since an attack on his palace in early June, is well enough to return soon to Yemen and will make a media appearance within the next couple of days.

Speculation about Saleh's health and the likelihood of his return to Yemen have been rife since he was hurt in a bomb blast on June 3 in a mosque in his presidential palace. He flew to Saudi Arabia for treatment, leaving behind a country on the verge of civil war.

The president has not been seen in public since the explosion, which killed several people and wounded the prime minister, two deputy prime ministers and the speakers of both parliamentary chambers. It is not clear what role if any Saleh, under pressure to step down, sees for himself in ruling Yemen.

"He will appear within the next 48 hours despite our fear that the burns on his features and on different parts of his body will be an obstacle given that his appearance will not be as the media expects it," said Ahmed al-Sufi, the President's media secretary.

Yemen has been rocked by months of protests against Saleh's three decades of rule. Before that he was grappling with a rebellion in the north, separatist violence in the south and a resurgent wing of al Qaeda.

Sufi said Saleh was in good health and continued to direct Yemeni affairs from abroad. Saleh's deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has been at the helm while the president recovers.

A source close to the president said Saleh's condition was good enough to allow him to travel to Yemen soon.

"The bomb in the mosque was in close proximity to the president when it went off. He was really lucky to get out," the source, who was with Saleh during the attack, told Reuters.

Saleh is suffering from burns but they cover less than 40 percent of his body, the source said, addressing reports in recent weeks about the extent of his injuries.

Yemeni officials previously accused an opposition tribal coalition of shelling the palace, which it denied.

ANTI-SALEH MARCH

Last week, a Western diplomat told Reuters Saleh was unlikely to return home soon, as Saudi Arabia and the United States continue to push for a transfer of power under an existing Gulf Arab proposal for a transition in Yemen.

They fear a power vacuum and tribal warfare will be exploited by the local wing of al Qaeda to launch attacks in the Gulf region and beyond.

Tens of thousands marched in Sanaa on Sunday to demand Saleh leave power, condemning the United States and Saudi Arabia for what they saw as a failure to take a strong stand against him.

"The position of the United States and Saudi Arabia is against our revolution ... We want a transition council to be set up and for the remainders of the regime to leave," said demonstrator Imar Naji, referring to Saleh's sons who hold top military and security posts.

The proposal by Gulf Arab neighbors calls for Saleh to hand power over to his deputy, Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is acting president, as a step toward forming a new government and preparing for an election.

Ahmed Saleh, the president's son who heads the elite Republican Guards, said he backed Hadi's "efforts ... and meetings with opposition leaders and representatives of the international community to resolve the crisis..."

But he also voiced support for "constitutional legitimacy," terms often used by Saleh backers to justify his refusal to leave power, according to a statement on a Defense Ministry website.

Upon his return, President Saleh aims to propose two solutions, a source close to Saleh said.

"The first is to shift all power to the parliament and become just a figurehead," said the source. "The second will be to let a coalition government be formed and then hold early presidential elections and leave quietly."

VIOLENCE IN SOUTH

Underscoring the chaos in the country, especially in the south, an air raid on Saturday killed six militants on the outskirts of a village at the entrance to the volatile Abyan province.

A local official in Abyan told Reuters three soldiers were killed on Sunday in clashes with jihadist militants who took control of the province's capital Zinjibar in May.

Earlier, authorities detained the head of a prison and his deputy for questioning over the escape of 63 al Qaeda-affiliated inmates in the southern port city of al-Mukalla this week.

The jailbreak stoked fears militants are exploiting the unrest to gain a foothold in the impoverished state, from which they could launch attacks in the region and beyond.

Saleh's opponents say he is deliberately letting militants tighten their grip in the country to prove that only he stands in the way of an Islamist takeover.

In a sign of international unease, The U.N. Security Council voiced "grave concern" with the deteriorating security situation in Yemen, putting aside disagreements that had prevented the 15-nation body from speaking unanimously on the unrest there. (Additional reporting by Mohammed Mukhashaf in Aden and Mohammed Ghobari in Sanaa; writing by Isabel Coles; Editing by Ralph Boulton)

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Yemen opposition: talks over after Saleh government snub (Reuters)

SANAA (Reuters) – Talks to resolve Yemen's political crisis have failed after the deputy to wounded President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to speak with groups demanding he cede power immediately, opposition figures said.

Saleh, forced to seek medical treatment in Saudi Arabia for wounds suffered in an attack on his palace nine days ago, has refused to leave office despite nearly six months of street protests and many diplomatic attempts to remove him.

The ensuing political paralysis and long-standing conflicts with Islamist insurgents, separatists and rebel tribesmen, has fanned Western and regional fears of Yemen collapsing into chaos and giving al Qaeda a stronghold alongside oil shipping routes.

A member of the group of opposition parties demanding Saleh transfer power now said international efforts to broker an agreement to that end had collapsed because the acting leader, Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, would not talk to them.

"The American and European efforts for a dialogue between opposition parties and the ruling party has failed. The vice-president has refused to deal with or meet opposition parties," Mohammed al-Mutawakkil said.

"He justifies that by saying he is preoccupied with dealing with the fuel crisis and the ceasefire, as well as the security situation in the provinces."

A ceasefire has held in Sanaa since Saleh left a week ago, after more than 200 people were killed and thousands fled during two weeks of clashes between his loyalists and the forces of tribal leader Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, who backs the protesters.

The capital, however, is all but paralyzed by shortages of fuel and electricity, and violence in a southern province -- whose capital Islamist gunmen seized last month -- has worsened.

POPULATION FLEES CITY AMID FIGHTING

Yemen's army killed 21 al Qaeda members in the southern province of Abyan on Saturday, 18 of them in Zinjibar, the provincial capital that fell. Ten soldiers were killed in fighting there and another city, Lawdar, state media said.

Residents of Zinjibar said fighting continued early on Sunday, leaving at least four soldiers and several gunmen dead.

Yemen's health ministry said it would send 10,000 tones of medical supplies to people who have fled Zinjibar, including some 10,000 in the southern port of Aden.

A Yemeni NGO, Seyaj, called for help evacuating some 500 people trapped in the town due to continued fighting.

Opposition parties have said they will form their own transitional assembly in a week if Saleh does not cede power. It is not clear whether those parties have any significant influence over many of the protesters.

Saleh has three times backed out of plans crafted by oil-rich Gulf neighbors to quit after a transitional period.

His opponents have accused him of handing over Zinjibar to Islamists to reinforce his threat that the end of his three-decade rule, as demanded by protesters, would amount to ceding the region to al Qaeda.

Saleh has not been seen in public since the palace attack, which left him with burns and shrapnel wounds. Yemen's ambassador in London said on Saturday that he was recovering and in a "stable condition".

Saudi medical sources and Yemeni officials said Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Megawar and another cabinet member injured in the palace attack had been taken for more surgery, and described their condition as "serious".

Interfax news agency reported two planes had been dispatched to evacuate Russian nationals who want to leave the country. About 1,000 Russians citizens are in Yemen. (Additional reporting by Mohammed Mukhashaf in Aden, Douglas Busvine in Moscow; Writing by Joseph Logan; Editing by Louise Ireland)

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Yemen awaits possible Saleh return after surgery (Reuters)

By Mohammed Ghobari and Mohammed Mukhashaf Mohammed Ghobari And Mohammed Mukhashaf – 1 hr 52 mins ago

SANAA/ADEN (Reuters) – Loyalists to wounded President Ali Abdullah Saleh celebrated reports that he would soon return to Yemen, but opponents said they were working to ensure that, even if he does, he will no longer be in power.

U.S. and Yemeni officials have said Saleh, 69, was burned on 40 percent of his body in a rocket or bomb attack at his palace last Friday -- injuries which, depending on the depth of wounds, could be fatal and would probably curb his ability to rule.

Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for three decades, has not been seen since being flown for surgery to Saudi Arabia.

But after months of factional violence and pro-democracy protests, he has resisted Western and Arab pressure to step down and a government website dismissed dire assessments of Saleh's condition, said his injuries were minor and announced on Thursday that preparations for his return were under way.

"He has overcome the health difficulties after successful surgery to remove shrapnel ... Sources expected him to return soon after completing his recovery and treating some light surface burns," the government website 26 September said.

Opposition figures said their main concern was for Saleh to transfer his powers, regardless of whether he returned.

Even before the wave of pro-democracy protests, Saleh was struggling to quell a separatist rebellion in the south and a Shi'ite insurgency in the north.

TRANSFERRING POWER

Mohammed al-Mutawakkil of the coalition of opposition parties said the opposition had informed Saleh's ruling General People's Congress party on Wednesday that it would seek to establish its own transitional assembly after one week if action was not taken on transferring power to his deputy, Ab-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who was named acting president on June 4.

"More important than Saleh's return is that the ruling party transfers power and begins implementing the Gulf initiative," he said, referring to a Gulf Arab plan for Saleh to begin a power transfer which stalled in the days before he was wounded.

Political analyst Ali Seif Hassan said he was not convinced by state media reports that Saleh was about to come back but said that his return could help cement a new order.

"I'm not worried if he comes back since the important thing is that he signs an agreement to transfer power, whether he does that in Sanaa or Riyadh," he said.

The Yemeni government website said preparations were being made around the country to welcome back Saleh, who wavered between accepting Arab and international calls for him to step down and accusing his opponents of staging a coup.

Army units and supporters were heard in many areas of the capital Sanaa firing shots in the air overnight in celebration and the General People's Congress said it would organize a "Friday of Loyalty" demonstration after Friday prayers.

The site described statements by U.S. and Yemeni officials that Saleh's health was in a dire state as fabrications, saying he was being treated for burns to his face and had had shrapnel removed from his chest.

WEST ALARMED

The volatile situation in a country that lies on oil shipping lanes alarms Western nations and neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia, who fear the chaos could give al Qaeda freer rein to establish itself in the impoverished mountain state.

More than 40 percent of Yemenis live on less than $2 a day while a third face chronic hunger. Dwindling water and oil supplies are also problems.

A ceasefire has held in Sanaa since Saleh left, after more than 200 people were killed and thousands fled over two weeks in clashes between Saleh loyalists and the forces of tribal leader Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, who backs the protesters.

Many government ministries are not functioning as staff stay away and the city is suffering from cuts in electricity, fuel and water supplies, while fighting rages in the southern town of Zinjibar where Islamist militants have taken over.

Some of Saleh's opponents have accused the president of deliberately allowing al Qaeda militants to take over Zinjibar, capital of Abyan province, to demonstrate the security risks if he were to lose power.

A government statement said on Thursday 12 members of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had died in clashes, including some leading figures.

Health officials and residents described dire scenes in Zinjibar this week, as dead bodies were left on the streets and wild dogs roamed. Once home to more than 50,000 people, now it is a ghost town without power or running water.

Yemen's state news agency Saba said on Thursday the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees had begun the process of offering humanitarian aid to 10,000 people fleeing the Abyan province after the attacks from al Qaeda.

Saudi's state news agency quoted a Yemeni health ministry official as saying he estimated the number of people fleeing Abyan to be as high as 20,000.

There has been no word from Western powers, regional allies and Yemeni opposition parties on any efforts to take advantage of Saleh's absence to move toward implementing the Gulf Arab peace initiative -- by which Saleh was to step down one month after allowing a new opposition-led cabinet to be formed.

The U.N.'s World Food Programme (WFP) said Yemenis are going hungry as the fighting disrupts food supplies and pushes up the price of gas, water, fuel and other basic commodities.

(Additional reporting by Asma Alsharif and Shaimaa Fayed; Writing by Andrew Hammond; Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Jonathan Lynn)

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In Yemen, a High-Stakes Power Game as Saleh Is in Limbo (Time.com)

For the first time in 13 days, a lull has descended upon the fierce fighting between armed tribesmen and forces loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The consistent shelling and gunfire in the capital city of Sana'a have been replaced by a tense quiet, with most residents still choosing to stay in their homes or flee to ancestral villages.

After an attack on his presidential compound, Saleh, 69, is now lying in a Saudi hospital recovering from what U.S. officials said were burns to over 40% of his body. Should that statistic be accurate, it is unlikely a man of his age would be able to survive. That possibility has begun circulating among the anti-Saleh demonstrators. Dr. Hamaza Alshargabi, a physician who has been volunteering his services at the Change Square protest camp field hospital in Sana'a, treating bullet wounds, trauma, and asphyxiation from tear gas fumes, says that, based on the reports, the president's prognosis is dire. "A man that is nearly 70 such as the president would not be able to survive such severe injuries," says the doctor. (See photos of Yemen after Saleh is evacuated to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment.)

Nevertheless, the Yemeni Government has pledged that Saleh will return as soon as he is able. In a statement, it declared that "Consistent with the nation's constitutional process, [His Excellency] Vice President Abdu Rabo Mansour Hadi is the acting president in charge of the caretaker government during President Saleh's temporary medical leave. President Saleh will return to Yemen from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to re-assume his duties soon after he recovers."

In the meantime, as Saleh's health hangs in the balance in Saudi Arabia, his home country sits in limbo as major power brokers look to make their bids for power in his absence. The president's son, Ahmed, commander of the country's Republican Guard, has taken up residence in the palace. While he relaxes in his father's seat of power, some say that Ahmed has neither the credibility nor the connections to hold the fractured nation together as his father did. "Saleh's boys don't have a chance at ruling Yemen," says Yemeni political analyst Abdul Ghani al-Iryani. "Even with all of Saleh's skills and connections, he was losing control of the country. However, the sticky issue is the manner of Saleh's return. Should Ahmed or his nephew Yahya [commander of the ostensibly loyal Central Security Forces] feel his exit is dishonorable, they may be compelled to take up arms again all that oppose their patriarch."

As for Saleh's deputy, Abd Rabo Mansur Hadi is a characteristically weak figure, with no units of the military loyal to him personally. In a statement he provided to the ruling party committee, the vice president, in a shaky voice, simply said that Saleh's return was imminent, refusing to accept the responsibilities of acting president. Hadi's obvious ambivalence to assume power was something glaringly obvious to Yemen's pro-democracy protesters. On Tuesday afternoon, they pounced on the opportunity to force the reluctant vice president to pass on his responsibilities to a transitional government. The demonstrators marched on his residence, just a few yards outside of the protest camp's borders. Thousands streamed out of the square, screaming "Stay out, Ali! Stay out!" (See the Middle East in revolt.)

Curiously, men loyal to the most prominent military defector to the protesters' side, General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, had surrounded the vice president's home and stopped the protesters from reaching the gates of his palatial estate. After setting up camp and pledging to stage a sit-in for 24 hours, the protesters were dispersed by the soldiers who had protected them since March. It appears as if Mohsen may have chosen to use Hadi as his surrogate in the political maneuverings - and provided him with the requisite military protection to be part of the game.

The Al-Ahmar family and the Hashid tribal confederation they control, while quieted for now, still maintain their positions in northern Sana'a. (General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar is not related to the al-Ahmar family that dominates the tribal militia.) Surrounding the Al-Hasaba area of the capital are checkpoints manned by tribesmen brandishing AK-47's, RPK heavy machine guns, Dragunov sniper rifles, RPG's, and shoulder mounted missile launchers. Their ammunition vests are quite nearly bursting at the seams - gun barrels bearing down on traffic in the distance from bunkers built with sandbags stacked seven high.

The tribesmen communicate through CB radio handsets, directing forces and coordinating with commanders to allow certain supply trucks to move into the area. "Traffic has picked up towards the south, send more men to the checkpoint," said one tribesman on his radio, sniper rifle slung over his shoulder.

Throughout the city lies proof of the tit-for-tat combat between Saleh loyalists and anti-regime forces. In front of the home Sadeq al-Ahmar, Hashid's most prominent sheikh, lies twisted metal that has fallen from the headquarters of Yemenia Airways, the state run airline. The 10-story building had been shelled over the last few days by Saleh loyalists. Its windows have been blown out and parts of the building's facade litter the street.

Meanwhile, the headquarters of Saleh's ruling party, the General People's Congress, is located within the territory that was taken by the tribesmen. An enormous portrait of President Saleh adorns the entrance of the building, peering over a high stone wall, pock marked with bullet holes. Two sandbag bunkers housing 10 tribesmen now block the entrance to the building, "Get out" spray-painted in Arabic on the heavily fortified front gate of the building. The more appropriate slogan now may be "Stay out."

Read "Why It's Too Soon to Celebrate in Yemen."

See "Yemen on the Brink of Civil War."

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Yemen's Saleh said stable, Sanaa ceasefire holds (Reuters)

SANAA/JEDDAH (Reuters) – Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is in good health after an operation for injuries sustained in a rocket attack and is unlikely to undergo further surgery, a Yemeni diplomat in Riyadh said on Wednesday.

Saleh, 69, was wounded on Friday when rockets struck his Sanaa palace, killing seven people and wounding senior officials and advisers in what his officials said was an assassination attempt. He is being treated in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Saleh was initially said to have received a shrapnel wound, and his vice president was quoted on Monday as saying the president would return to Yemen within days.

Yemeni and U.S. officials said on Tuesday that Saleh was in a more serious condition, with burns over roughly 40 percent of his body.

But a senior Yemeni diplomat in Saudi Arabia said Saleh was improving and a further operation was not seen as necessary at this stage.

"I visited him yesterday evening and he was good. He talked to us and asked about the Yemeni expatriates and he is better than the others who were injured. He is very good and talks. He was sitting on a chair," said Taha al-Hemyari, head of Yemeni Community Affairs at the Riyadh embassy.

"Maybe within the next hours the supervising doctor will release a statement about his condition." Saudi newspaper al-Watan cited diplomatic sources saying another operation on Saleh was still possible.

Saudi officials say it is up to Saleh whether he returns home but they, and their Western allies, may want to revive a Gulf-brokered transition deal under which the Yemeni leader would quit in return for immunity from prosecution.

In the capital Sanaa, a ceasefire was holding between government forces loyal to Saleh and tribesman of Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar of the powerful Hashed tribe, who have turned against their former ally. Over 200 people were killed and thousands fled in two weeks of fighting.

But thousands of protesters gathered in front of the Yemeni vice president's residence on Tuesday, demanding the acting leader form a transitional council to create a new government.

Around 4,000 demonstrators in Sanaa, who have been demanding Saleh to step down for five months, called for a "million-man march" for him to stay in Saudi Arabia.

ROCKET ATTACK

The volatile situation in Yemen, which lies on vital oil shipping lanes, alarms Western powers and neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia, who fear that chaos would enable the local al Qaeda franchise to operate more freely there.

They see Saleh's absence for medical treatment in Riyadh as an opportunity to ease the president out of office after nearly 33 years ruling the impoverished Arab nation.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday called for a peaceful and orderly transition in Yemen. British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Tuesday urged the vice president to work with all sides to implement the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Agreement and begin political transition.

Saudi Arabia is worried by the activities of the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has staged daring if not very effective attacks on Saudi and U.S. targets.

The army said it had killed dozens of Islamist militants including a local al Qaeda leader in the southern town of Zinjibar, capital of the flashpoint Abyan province. A local official said 15 soldiers had been killed in the battles for control of the town seized by militants some 10 days ago.

Some of Saleh's opponents have accused the president of deliberately letting AQAP militants take over Zinjibar to demonstrate the security risks if he lost power.

The fighting has reduced Zinjibar, once home to more than 50,000 people, to a ghost town without power or running water.

Saleh has defied pressure to accept the transition plan brokered by the Saudi-led GCC. Three times, he has backed away from signing it at the last minute.

"The transition seems to be on track as per the GCC initiative. There will be many obstacles down the road, but without Saleh's destructive presence, we can overcome them," said Yemeni political analyst Abdul-Ghani al-Iryani.

The future of Yemen, where shifting alliances of tribal leaders, generals and politicians compete for power, is uncertain. Saleh's sons and relatives remain in the country, commanding elite military units and security agencies.

Other contenders in a possible power struggle include the well-armed Hashed tribal federation, breakaway military leaders, Islamists, leftists and an angry public seeking relief from crippling poverty, corruption and failing public services.

(Additional reporting by Asma Alsharif; Writing by Jon Herskovitz and Andrew Hammond; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Yemen's Saleh 'has collapsed lung, 40% burns'

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh (pictured in 2008) was injured Friday from an attack at his presidential compound. NEW: 15 are dead from clashes between Islamic militants and security forces in AbyanThe U.N. has blamed the Yemeni government for killing as many as 50 protesters in TaizSource: Saleh should accept a deal offering immunity in exchange for stepping downA U.S. official says the unrest in Yemen makes counterterrorism efforts "more difficult"

(CNN) -- Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh suffered burns on 40% of his body and a collapsed lung, U.S. government officials briefed on the matter said, as the fate of the embattled leader -- and whether he will return to the conflict in Yemen -- remains uncertain.

Saleh was injured Friday from an attack at his presidential compound and is seeking treatment in Saudi Arabia. An Arab diplomatic source with knowledge of Saleh's condition says one shrapnel wound is 7 centimeters (2.75 inches) deep.

Fighting between government and tribal forces have raged for weeks in Yemen, where thousands of anti-government protesters have been pressuring Saleh to give up power since January.

The fiercest clashes since anti-government protests started in the southern city of Taiz continued early Tuesday, with battles between anti-regime gunmen and government security forces, witnesses said.

The witnesses cited heavy gunfire near the Republican Palace, not far from the city's Freedom Square -- a focal point of anti-government protests. The witnesses did not want to be identified, citing fear for their safety.

Anti-government gunmen were trying to protect the anti-government demonstrators, who have repeatedly come under fire from security forces during the past two months.

Last week, Yemen's government faced condemnation from the United Nations and others for the killing of as many as 50 anti-government demonstrators in Taiz.

A U.S. official said al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has a significant presence in the southern province of Abyan, also home to an Islamic militant movement that has targeted government troops in recent days.

At least 15 people have been killed in Abyan Monday night and Tuesday morning from clashes between Islamic militants and security forces, according to a security source in Abyan.

The number includes nine soldiers, four militants and two civilians in Zinjibar and other suburbs in the province, according to the source, who asked to not be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

Earlier, the official said five civilians had been killed, but the source said Tuesday that at least three were actually militants.

The turmoil in Yemen reached a pinnacle Friday, when a mosque in Saleh's presidential compound was attacked. Yemen's state-run news agency SABA reported last week that three guards and an imam were killed, citing a source in Saleh's office.

According to Western diplomats, the attack came from a bomb. Yemeni investigations are "focusing on what happened inside the mosque," not a rocket or mortar attack, the diplomats said Monday. One diplomat said the bombing was not a suicide bombing and that the Yemeni investigation "is still ongoing."

But last week, a Yemeni official who asked not to be named told CNN that Saleh was in the mosque when two "projectiles" were fired during Friday prayers.

Supporters of Sadeq Al-Ahmar, leader of the Hashed tribe and an opponent of the Yemeni government, have been suspected in the attack at the presidential compound.

Yemeni security forces shelled Al-Ahmar's home on Friday in response to the attack, leaving 10 people dead and 35 others wounded, according to Fawzi Al-Jaradi, an official with the Hashed tribal confederation.

After Saleh went to Saudi Arabia for treatment, the tribal leader and Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi -- Yemen's interim leader -- agreed on a cease-fire, said Abdulqawi Al-Qaisi, spokesman for the Hashed leader.

Yemen's largest opposition bloc has vowed to prevent Saleh from returning.

"The Yemeni people will do all in their power to not allow Saleh to re-enter the country," Joint Meeting Parties spokesman Mohammed Qahtan said Sunday.

One of the U.S. government officials said Monday he can't imagine the Saudis letting him go back. He said it is critical that the Saudis press Saleh to accept a Gulf Cooperation Council deal offering him immunity in exchange for stepping down.

However, Saudi state-run Ekhbariya television reported Monday that Saleh had undergone two operations in Saudi Arabia and would return to Yemen after he recovers.

Christopher Boucek, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he doubts Saleh will go back.

"The regime still maintains that he will return, and they say he's going to return within days, if not weeks," Boucek said. "But there's really no option I see for how he can go back and still be president."

A U.S. official told CNN Monday that the unrest makes U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Yemen "more difficult."

"We rely on the Yemeni government as partners," the official said. "The more the government is distracted by the political unrest, the more difficult it is for us."

The Yemeni government has had a "big impact on acquiring information on AQAP," the official said, referring to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. "If that information flow slows or stops, it inhibits our ability to gather information."

Two opposition leaders in Yemen expressed cautious support Monday for Hadi, the vice president, while Saleh is away.

"We do not have any problem if Hadi takes control of the government. He is respected by the people," said Tawakkul Karman, adding that Hadi "must use this historic moment to enter Yemen's history as a leader and revolutionary."

But she warned that if he does not "conduct immediate reforms, the youth protesters will go against him the same way they did against Saleh. It's Hadi's choice to decide which door of history he wants to go through."

Ahmed Bahri, a senior official of the opposition Joint Meeting Parties, said that if Hadi can lead peaceful change, "we welcome it. If not, he should step aside and not stall the revolution."

CNN's Nic Robertson, Elise Labott, Pam Benson, Tim Lister and Jill Dougherty contributed to this report.

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Saudi TV: Saleh to return to Yemen

NEW: The government denies being behind the shooting of 3 tribesmenOpposition leaders express cautious support for the vice presidentA tribal spokesman says the government kills 3 tribesmen despite a cease-fireYemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Saudi Arabia for medical treatment after being wounded

(CNN) -- Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh underwent two operations in Saudi Arabia and will return to Yemen after he recovers, the Saudi state-run Ekhbariya television station reported Monday.

Saleh is in Saudi Arabia for treatment following a rocket attack on his presidential compound on Friday.

There are conflicting reports about his health, with Western diplomatic sources saying Sunday Saleh was undergoing neurosurgery while a spokesman for his party described Saleh's procedures as "simple check-ups."

A senior U.S. official said Saleh had shrapnel wounds and severe burns to his face and chest, adding that it was not clear how serious the injuries were. The official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation.

Two opposition leaders in Yemen expressed cautious support Monday for acting President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the vice president who assumed temporary power when Saleh flew to Saudi Arabia.

"We do not have any problem if Hadi takes control of the government. He is respected by the people," said Tawakkul Karman, adding that Hadi "must use this historic moment to enter Yemen's history as a leader and revolutionary."

But, she warned that if he does not "conduct immediate reforms, the youth protesters will go against him the same way they did against Saleh. It's Hadi's choice to decide which door of history he wants to go through."

Ahmed Bahri, a senior official of the opposition Joint Meeting Parties, said that if Hadi can lead peaceful change, "we welcome it. If not, he should step aside and not stall the revolution."

"Hadi has been respected by all the political factions for decades, but Saleh did not give him a chance to lead positive change," Bahri said. "Today is his opportunity to repay the Yemeni people for their patience and work for the sake of the people and not for Saleh."

Violence in Yemen continued Monday as three Hashed tribesmen were killed by Yemeni government snipers despite a cease-fire between the two sides, a spokesman for the tribe's leader said.

The cease-fire was agreed upon late Sunday between Hashed leader Sadeq Al-Ahmar -- who opposes the Yemeni government -- and Vice President Hadi, said Abdulqawi Al-Qaisi, spokesman for the Hashed leader.

He blamed Yemen's Republican Guard for the tribesmen's deaths in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa.

"The tribes are insistent that the cease-fire continues, but the Republican Guard wants chaos as usual to show the people that without Saleh, clashing will take place everywhere," Al-Qaisi said.

But the government denied being behind the deaths.

"The government does not attack people who are not going against the law," government spokesman Abdu Ganadi said. "These are claims from the tribes in order to cause more crimes in Sanaa."

Supporters of Al-Ahmar are suspected in the Friday attack on the Yemeni presidential compound. Yemen's state-run news agency SABA, citing a source in Saleh's office, reported last week that three guards and an imam were killed.

Yemeni security forces shelled Al-Ahmar's home on Friday in response to the attack, leaving 10 people dead and 35 others wounded, according to Fawzi Al-Jaradi, an official with the Hashed tribal confederation.

The cease-fire deal followed two weeks of clashes between government and tribal forces in Yemen, where thousands of protesters have been pressuring Saleh to give up power since January.

The fighting erupted when Saleh balked at a deal with the opposition that would have eased him out of office in 30 days.

Yemen's largest opposition bloc had vowed to prevent Saleh from returning.

"The Yemeni people will do all in their power to not allow Saleh to re-enter the country," JMP spokesman Mohammed Qahtan said Sunday.

But what's next for the embattled president and country remains unclear.

Joost Hiltermann, an Washington-based analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Saleh's decision to seek treatment in Saudi Arabia means a shift in power is likely, but "not yet a foregone conclusion."

"The president's sons and nephews control a significant part of the security apparatus," Hiltermann said. "And they might yet put up a fight, or decide to go into negotiations over a transition of power."

CNN's Tim Lister, Nic Robertson and Elise Labott contributed to this report.

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Yemen's Saleh likely out of power this year: report (Reuters)

DUBAI (Reuters) – President Ali Abdullah Saleh is unlikely to stay in power through 2011 but violence in Yemen will increase while he clings on, a report said on Wednesday.

Global powers have been pressing Saleh to sign a Gulf-mediated deal to step down and stem spreading chaos in civil-war-threatened Yemen, a haven for al Qaeda militants and neighbor to the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.

"Saleh is unlikely to survive 2011 as president of Yemen; however the likelihood of a managed transition is decreasing, and an attempt to forcibly oust Saleh from power is becoming more likely," the Eurasia Group said in a report.

This week, there have been three main flashpoints in the country -- fighting in the capital, government troops gunning down protesters in Taiz in the south and a battle with al Qaeda and Islamic militants in the coastal city of Zinjibar.

The political risk think-tank said the most likely outcome for the crisis is for Saleh leaving power through a political deal he brokers from a position of weakness, or being ousted by force by breakaway military groups and tribal leaders.

The report cautioned: "Saleh leaving power early does not result in a functional Yemeni state that can reassert control over the country in the short term."

Saleh, a wily politician who has ruled the impoverished country for nearly 33 years, has faced months of street protests calling for his ouster while his forces have battled powerful tribal groups who have aligned themselves with the protesters.

GULF NEIGHBOURS EXASPERATED

Members of his military and government started to abandon him in March after his troops killed dozens of protesters.

The breakaway military groups have called on others in the army to join them in opposition to the government but have not engaged in any major fighting with forces loyal to Saleh.

Saleh has also exasperated his rich Gulf Arab neighbors by three times agreeing to step down, only to pull out of a power transition plan at the last minute.

Analysts are worried that the instability in Yemen could embolden the al Qaeda wing in the country, which has targeted the United States and Saudi Arabia.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a ceasefire between Saleh's forces and a powerful tribal group, after street fighting between the two last week killed at least 115 people.

"The Secretary-General is gravely concerned about the reports of excessive use of force by Yemeni security forces against unarmed demonstrators in Taiz and the escalating fighting in Sana and other cities leaving scores of civilians dead, wounded and displaced," he said in a statement.

(Additional reporting by Lou Charbonneau at the United Nations)

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Yemenis flee gunbattles as Saleh rules out concessions (Reuters)

SANAA (Reuters) – Yemenis fled the capital on Wednesday to escape gunbattles between loyalists and opponents of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who said he would make no more concessions to those seeking his ouster.

Sporadic machinegun fire rang out for the third day in the sandbagged streets around the mansion of an influential tribal leader who has backed protesters seeking to overthrow the longtime ruler after repeated international mediation failed.

Black smoke rose from the compound of Sadiq al-Ahmar, at the center of the clashes that have killed more than 40 people since Monday, when his guards first exchanged fire with loyalist forces they accused of stockpiling weapons at a nearby school.

Authorities closed Sanaa airport and flights were being diverted after clashes broke out with tribesmen loyal to Ahmar, a security official told Reuters, adding that some airlines had begun cancelling flights to Yemen on Tuesday.

"What happened was a provocative act to drag us into civil war, but it is limited to the Ahmar sons. They bear responsibility for shedding the blood of innocent civilians," Saleh told selected media including Reuters.

"Until this second, they are attacking the Interior Ministry. But we don't want to widen the confrontation," he said. "They have chosen this and they made the wrong decision to confront the state with this kind of violence."

Four people were killed and 11 wounded, the defense ministry said, blaming Ahmar's men. Witnesses and officials said Ahmar's backers took over several ministry buildings near his compound.

The fighting, the most sustained clashes in Sanaa since protests against Saleh's rule began in February, erupted on Monday, a day after the president refused at the last minute to sign a Gulf-brokered deal that would ease him out of power.

Saleh has backed out twice before, but Sunday's turnabout, after loyalist gunmen trapped Western and Arab diplomats in the United Arab Emirates embassy for hours, appeared to have sparked a major reaction.

General Ali al-Mohsen, a regional army commander who has sided with protesters, called on the armed forces to defy Saleh.

"Beware of following this madman who is thirsty for more bloodshed," Mohsen said in a statement.

Both sides blamed each other for the violence, which the opposition said could start a civil war. The bloodshed dimmed prospects for a political solution to a popular revolt inspired by protests that swept aside the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia.

"I think there's a real risk that violence can escalate, and we see a move toward low intensity civil war," said Shadi Hamid, analyst at the Brookings Doha Center.

"There's a real loss of faith in the political process after Saleh refused to sign a deal several times. That really cast doubt on whether Saleh has any real commitment to letting go of power voluntarily," he added.

CONTROL OF MINISTRIES

Saleh said the deal remained on the table, despite his repeated failure to sign: "I am ready to sign within a national dialogue and a clear mechanism. If the mechanism is sound, we will sign the transition of power deal and we will give up power."

"No more concessions after today," he said.

In the capital Sanaa, fighters in civilian clothes roamed the streets in some districts and sporadic bursts of machinegun fire punctuated the air.

Long lines of cars snaked out of the city, bags piled high on their roofs, even as gunmen blocked entrances to prevent tribesmen from bringing in reinforcements, witnesses said.

The situation calmed slightly in the afternoon as mediators tried to seal a truce. Yet in the neighborhoods close to the fighting, men fled with suitcases and women carried their babies in the streets, seeking safety elsewhere.

"It's no longer possible to stay in Sanaa. The confrontations will reach all parts of the city," said Murad Abdullah as he left by car. "I am afraid for my life. I will go to my village in Ibb. The situation there is safe."

The United States and Saudi Arabia, both targets of foiled attacks by a wing of al Qaeda based in Yemen, have tried to defuse the crisis and avert any spread of anarchy that could give the global militant network more room to operate.

U.N. Secretary Genera Ban Ki-moon's spokesman Martin Nesirky said Ban was deeply troubled by the clashes in Sanaa and called for further peace efforts and an immediate end to the fighting, while Britain reiterated calls on Saleh to sign the exit deal.

But a peaceful outcome looked ever less likely.

Witnesses and officials said supporters of Ahmar, head of the Hashed tribal federation to which Saleh's Sanhan tribe also belongs, were controlling several ministry buildings near the Ahmar compound including trade and tourism, as well as the offices of the state news agency Saba.

Ahmar's fighters had also attacked the headquarters of the interior ministry, the courtyard of which came under fire from rocket-propelled grenades, witnesses said.

Televised images of the Ahmar compound showed tribesmen rushing through opulent but dusty halls, their floors spattered with blood, as they helped colleagues wounded in the fighting.

"This is an attempt to drag the revolution from its peaceful path," opposition politician Hamid al-Ahmar, brother to Sadiq al-Ahmar, said on Al Jazeera television.

"But this is understood, and it won't affect the path of the revolution. The popular revolution."

(Additional reporting by Mohamed Sudam and Khaled al-Mahdi in Sanaa and Nour Merza in Dubai; writing by Cynthia Johnston and Firouz Sedarat; editing by Erika Solomon and Philippa Fletcher)

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Saleh calls for early election as Yemenis protest (Reuters)

SANAA (Reuters) – Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh called Friday for early elections in an apparent bid to stave off Gulf and Western pressure to leave office, as thousands rallied for and against his three-decade rule.

Saleh has twice backed out of a Gulf Arab-brokered transition deal, most recently last Wednesday, despite diplomatic wrangling by U.S., Gulf and European officials.

Washington and Riyadh, both targets of foiled attacks by al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing, are keen to end a stalemate that has pushed fractious Yemen further onto the brink of chaos and could give the militant network more room to operate.

Saleh in March called for a presidential election by the end of this year, but in his Friday speech he did not give any time frame or details on a plan for an election, leaving some skeptical it may be a tactic to buy time.

"We call for an early presidential election to prevent bloodshed, to protect our family dignity and for a smooth democratic path," he told a cheering crowd of tens of thousands of supporters waving his picture and Yemeni flags.

Security analyst Theodore Karasik, of the Dubai-based INEGMA group, said: "I think it is a ploy to further delay the inevitable, to make it look like he is trying to leave power, but I don't think that is his full intention."

But Saleh appeared to lay the groundwork for his followers to prepare to relinquish some control over government.

"Your General People's Congress will remain both in power and out of power and they will educate them (the opposition) in how to be a responsible opposition. No cutting roads, no cutting tongues, no treachery."

Protesters are increasingly frustrated their three months of daily protests have failed to dislodge Saleh. They have begun blocking roads and staging mass strikes that have ground commerce to a halt in several cities.

Yemen also faces severe power and fuel crises since tribesmen blockaded the oil- and gas-producing Maarib province a few weeks ago. Loss of its exports, the government's main source of income, are likely costing Yemen some $3 million a day.

GULF BLOC MEETS SUNDAY

Gulf foreign ministers are planning to meet Sunday to discuss Yemen's political crisis, but have made no mention of another deal signing, although Yemeni officials in the opposition and government said they may try again to ink the twice-thwarted deal Sunday.

In the capital Sanaa and Taiz, to the south, protesters called on Saleh to end his nearly 33 years in power.

"Zayani, Zayani, we need another president," they shouted, referring to Abdullatif al-Zayani, secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), who has headed mediation efforts.

Saleh first refused to sign the GCC deal in April when he said he would only sign in his capacity as ruling party leader, not president. Last Wednesday he backed out in objection to the opposition's inclusion of a politician he did not want to be among those who would sign the deal.

Yemen, where half the 23-million people own a gun, and already facing regional rebellions, has become a concern for regional stability among its Gulf neighbors, particularly neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia, and the United States, which has seen Yemen as an ally against al Qaeda.

In his widely anticipated speech on U.S. policy in the Arab world, President Barack Obama said Thursday that Saleh needed to "follow through on his commitment to transfer power."

On the streets of Sanaa, Obama's words received mixed reviews. Some protesters were optimistic that his call for a transition meant the U.S. president was on their side. Others argued he did not go far enough in confronting Saleh.

"The American position is still weak toward President Saleh. We were waiting for Obama to call on Saleh to leave immediately," Samir Abdullah said.

(Additional reporting by Sara Anabtawi in Dubai; Writing by Erika Solomon)

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