Democrats are a little mopey because it looks all but certain that they will lose control of the Senate in 2012. Republicans need to gain only four of the 23 seats up for election next year and there are a bevy of Red-State Democrats who are ripe to be picked off.
In conservative states, Obama will be a drag on the ticket. In swing states, Obama will not likely have any coattails. An incumbent president with a 42 percent job approval rating might eke out a re-election, but it will be as a solo act, not part of an ensemble.
In 1996, Bill Clinton won re-election and Democrats still managed to lose two Senate seats. Obama is about 10 points behind where Bubba was in the polls at this point, so the chances for a big win by the Honolulu kid seem remote. And as he struggles, Obama will not be looking to add any extra burdens in the form of embattled Senate incumbents.
The other reason Democrats are glum is that as the conventional wisdom absorbs the notion that the Blue Team will lose control of the upper chamber, it becomes harder to raise the big money needed to keep vulnerable incumbents in place. When the cause looks lost, the big-dollar, corporate donors get scarcer.
The two Republican-held seats considered vulnerable to Democratic takeover next year have grown less so in recent weeks.
Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., seems to have struck the right balance with Bay State voters and polls show that rooting out the male-model moderate will be a tough task. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., has opted to drop his improbable re-election bid amid a sex and payola scandal. Republicans are much happier to be backing Rep. Dean Heller in an open-seat race than dragging a damaged incumbent.
But take heart, Dems.
Lowered expectations are usually blessings in politics. There isn’t any sign of the massive wave that wiped out the House Democrats in 2010. It will instead be a steady tide that will pull Harry Reid out of the majority leader’s office. By the time Election Day arrives, Democrats will have spun it so that anything short of Republicans gaining a 60-seat supermajority is really a loss for the GOP.
If Republicans take over it will not likely be with a stout majority but rather a bare one subject to raids across party lines and lots of bickering.
Also, there is an advantage to having a president who doesn’t have coattails. Rather than worry about being able to soak up the reflected glow of a popular incumbent, vulnerable Senate Democrats will be excused from running away from Obama. It will be every man for himself, and that’s good news when the big guy is struggling.
Now, on to the Power Politics Senate Democrats misery index. Here are, ranked by degree of difficulty, the eight toughest races for Democrats next year
1) Montana
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