In this 1998 file photo, Ayman al-Zawahri, left, poses for a photograph with Osama bin Laden, right, in Khost, Afghanistan.
By Mazhar Ali Khan, APIn this 1998 file photo, Ayman al-Zawahri, left, poses for a photograph with Osama bin Laden, right, in Khost, Afghanistan.
"Decapitation does not mean the end of the movement," said Georgetown University professor Bruce Hoffman, who has studied terrorism and insurgencies for more than three decades."Some may see this as an opportunity to steal the limelight," Hoffman said. "While the risk (of new attacks) may go up, the good news is that in the rush to do something, some of these (groups) may go off half-cocked" and allow U.S. officials to learn more about the surviving terror networks.
For years, bin Laden's grip on the operational workings of al-Qaeda had loosened dramatically as thousands of operatives were captured or killed on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq and drone attacks chased top terror leaders deeper into hiding, the analysts said.
But what survives and continues to thrive is a fractured network of small terrorist franchises ? many inspired by bin Laden's successful 9/11 assault ? strewn across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. The Middle Eastern nation of Yemen is now regarded by the U.S. government as the new global base of terrorist operations.
"Al-Qaeda, the organization, is hurting, but the fight in the coming years will be with al-Qaeda-ism ? the movement that survives bin Laden," said Phil Mudd, former executive assistant director of the FBI's National Security Branch. "All of this celebration on the streets in Washington and New York represents a misunderstanding of the threat we face."
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of al-Qaeda's continuing influence is the emergence of so-called homegrown U.S. operatives who have drawn inspiration from bin Laden and, more recently, radical Yemen cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, said Tom Kean, co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission, which identified a series of government security failures leading up to the 2001 attacks.
Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, accused in the 2009 massacre at Fort Hood, Texas, where 13 people were killed, allegedly sought guidance from al-Awlaki prior to the shooting. The U.S.-born cleric also supported the 2009 Christmas Day attempted bombing of a commercial jet over Detroit. The suspect, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, is alleged to have trained for the mission in Yemen.
The incidents were part of a string of recent plots, many featuring U.S. residents, who unsuccessfully targeted a range of targets, from Times Square and the New York subway system to a Portland Christmas tree lighting ceremony and a military recruiting office in suburban Baltimore.
"The increasing threat of homegrown terrorism is part of the (al-Qaeda) legacy," Kean said, adding that the threat is likely to intensify in the aftermath of bin Laden's death.
"They will want to show that they are still alive," the former New Jersey governor said. "They will attempt to do something." Kean said.
The prospect of reprisals has prompted the FBI and police agencies to bolster the law enforcement presence in several major cities. None of the agencies said they were acting on a specific threat, but were increasing such things as patrols at key landmarks and transportation hubs as a precaution.
"We have to assume that among bin Laden's disciples are those who would like nothing better than to avenge his death by striking New York City again," New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said Monday.
Marc Sageman, a terror analyst who has served as a consultant for the New York Police Department, said U.S. officials were over-estimating al-Qaeda's capacity to strike. And with bin Laden gone, he said, the terror organization would struggle to attract new recruits.
"Some person may become the new head of the global jihadist network, but nobody will ever come close to Osama bin Laden."
While bin Laden's assassination was lauded by White House Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan as a "defining moment" for U.S. counterterrorism operations, the celebration was tempered by talk of a continuing battle with no end in sight.
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., a member of the Armed Services Committee, said bin Laden's death "deals a huge symbolic blow to al-Qaeda."
"Bin Laden was al-Qaeda," said Reed, adding that the terrorist leader's death should alarm the group's surviving members, including top lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahri, about their own security.
Despite those considerations, Reed said al-Qaeda remained a continuing threat to U.S. interests.
"This does not eliminate the threat of terrorism," Reed said. "It does not eliminate the threat of cells operating independently. This is a multiyear, perhaps generational, effort that requires as much diplomacy as it does military action to defeat."
Jane Harman, a former California congresswoman who served as the Democratic ranking member of the Homeland Security intelligence subcommittee, said al-Qaeda will likely survive bin Laden's death.
"I think we should continue to worry," said Harman, now president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "The symbolic leader is gone. But the operational leaders are not gone. Al-Qaeda is like an amoeba.
"The end of this will not just be capture-and-kill operations," she said. "The end of this is winning the argument. We have to project a narrative that is more appealing to those who might be suicide bombers or the heads of al-Qaeda affiliates."
Contributing: Richard Wolf
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