After decades of war, Sudan's Abyei defies quick fixes (Reuters)

KHARTOUM/JUBA (Reuters) – When Abdeljalil Abdelrahim talks about Abyei, a war-scarred region in central Sudan prized by northern nomads for its grazing land, he has no doubt it belongs to the north.

"Abyei has been part of the north historically," the 41-year-old laborer said as he unloaded jerricans of food oil in a dusty Khartoum suburb. "If there is a war over it, I'll be fighting alongside my government, alongside the north."

Some 1,200 kilometres (750 miles) south in Juba, 36-year-old Abel Garang, from the southern Dinka tribe like most of Abyei's permanent residents, is just as certain the region is southern. "Abyei belongs to the south. It's our land, it's our place."

South Sudan will split away to form a new nation on July 9, but north and south have yet to agree who owns Abyei, stirring fears a long-running quarrel over the region will sour the secession and could spark a broader conflict.

In a power play ahead of the split, Khartoum sent tanks and troops into Abyei on May 21, outraging the southern government, human rights groups and regional and global powers who called it a violation of the 2005 deal that ended Sudan's long civil war.

The move followed an attack on a convoy of northern troops and U.N. peacekeepers which the north blamed on the south and which the U.N. said was likely to have been carried out by southern police or soldiers.

As Khartoum moved in, tens of thousands of villagers fled south in a panicked exodus to escape looting and burning.

Last week the two sides agreed to withdraw troops from Abyei and bring in Ethiopian peacekeepers, but the area's symbolic and emotional potency could make it a sore point for years to come.

"This could be the start of another prolonged bout of internationally-backed mediation, or it could be the first shot in a long border war," Douglas Johnson, a Sudan expert and former member of the Abyei Boundaries Commission, said.

A return to war, which neither north or south Sudan can afford, would destabilize the region by sending refugees back into neighbors like Kenya and Ethiopia and creating a security vacuum in the heavily-armed south.

ETHNIC DIVISIONS

A volatile mix of politics, history and oil has fueled conflict over Abyei, a microcosm for the ethnic and religious divisions behind a civil war that claimed some 2 million lives.

The Dinka Ngok people, part of the south's main ethnic group, live and farm the land all year round. The northern Arab Misseriya nomads use it for part of the year to graze cattle.

A major sticking point has been a dispute over who should be allowed to vote in a referendum over whether the region would join the north or the south after the split.

Southerners, many of whom see holding the plebiscite as a major concession in itself, say Abyei's permanent residents should decide, meaning it would be mostly up to the Dinka.

"They (the Misseriya) are guests who came to graze. What kind of guests invade?" one Juba resident said.

Northern officials like Rabie Abdelati, a senior member of the north's ruling National Congress Party (NCP), dismiss this as discrimination. "As you know, a nomad is a citizen," he said.

The importance of both constituencies means neither side is likely to budge soon, analysts say. Many Ngok Dinka hold high-ranking posts in the south, and the Misseriya were powerful allies for the NCP during the civil war.

Abyei also contains one significant oilfield, Defra.

Although the region has just a sliver of Sudan's reserves, Khartoum stands to lose up to three-quarters of the country's current output of about 500,000 barrels per day when the south secedes, and so may try to hold on to as much as it can.

In the worst case, analysts and aid workers predict a replay of the Ethiopia-Eritrea war, when two other regional countries took up arms over a border dispute after a similar split.

"The Abyei crisis could produce a much wider and deadlier war after July 9 if it isn't addressed before then," John Prendergast, a former U.S. State Department official who co-founded the anti-genocide Enough Project, said.

A PEACEFUL SOLUTION

If you strip away the politics and history, Abyei may not seem worth all the bloodshed. A flat area about the size of Connecticut dotted with huts made of mud and stick, it has been pummeled by war and has only basic infrastructure.

Many still see hope for a peaceful resolution.

When the north seized Abyei, the south's President Salva Kiir told its Dinka residents not to despair -- Abyei would remain their land "whatever it costs us," he said. But there seemed to be little appetite to return to armed conflict.

Analysts said this could be a political calculation aimed at securing northern recognition of the south's independence, but many also see a weakening enthusiasm for war over Abyei, especially among a younger generation less steeped in conflict.

In the north, too, where inflation and a depreciating currency are presenting fresh economic challenges, there may be less zeal to fight for the distant region than there once was.

When asked what Abyei meant to him, one 24-year-old tourism worker in Khartoum just shrugged. "Frankly, we don't need any problems from the south here in the north," he said as he sat with friends by a juice stand. "We need a peaceful solution."

(Writing by Alex Dziadosz; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Shelling erupts in Sudan's Abyei, official says (Reuters)

JUBA, Sudan (Reuters) – Shelling between northern and southern Sudanese troops forced aid workers to evacuate the town of Agok at the southern tip of the disputed Abyei region on Friday, a humanitarian official said.

The country's south is just over three weeks away from declaring independence, but Khartoum and Juba have yet to decide who should control the fertile, oil-producing Abyei region, raising fears the two sides could return to open conflict.

Khartoum seized Abyei's main town on May 21, pushing as far south as the Kiir River, known as Bahr al-Arab in the north. The waterway has since become the front line between the two sides.

"This morning, from about 10 a.m., there was shelling on both sides of the river. Later there was shelling just a little bit north of Agok ... All humanitarians are being pulled out of Agok," the official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

The southern army said it had clashed with northern troops in the area, but it was not immediately clear if that was connected to the reported shelling near Agok.

A spokesman for the northern military was not immediately available to comment.

The southern military said it exchanged fire with northern forces in Abyei Wednesday. The northern army denied the report, suggesting internal southern rebel militias may have been behind the clashes.

Southern army spokesman Philip Aguer said there had been more clashes Friday, but did not give details.

"There was a clash in the same bridge area. The SAF (the northern Sudanese Armed Forces) came back. SPLA (the south's Sudan People's Liberation Army) fought them," he said. "We think the area might be overrun by SAF."

Negotiators from both sides have been meeting in neighboring Ethiopia since Sunday. Despite reaching an agreement "in principle" to demilitarize Abyei, no final deal has emerged yet.

Southerners voted for independence in a January referendum promised in a 2005 peace agreement that ended a long and brutal civil war. About 2 million people died in that conflict.

(Reporting by Jeremy Clarke; writing and additional reporting Alex Dziadosz in Khartoum; editing by Andrew Roche)

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Thousands flee Sudan's Abyei as militias move south (Reuters)

KHARTOUM/JUBA (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of people fled Sudan's contested Abyei region as northern militias accused of helping seize the area over the weekend moved further south, the United Nations said on Wednesday.

Armed groups, thought to be northern militias, also opened fire on four U.N. helicopters in Abyei on Tuesday, a U.N. spokeswoman said.

North Sudan sent tanks into Abyei, a central, oil-producing region claimed by both north and south Sudan, on Saturday, sparking an international outcry.

The move came at a highly sensitive time for Sudan, less than seven weeks before the country's south is expected to declare independence from the north, as part of a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war.

Abyei was a key battleground in Sudan's last civil war and a symbolic emblem for both sides. The region is used all year round by the south-linked Dinka Ngok people and for part of the year by northern Arab Misseriya nomads.

Analysts fear further north-south fighting over the region could spark a return to full-blown conflict, a development that could have a devastating impact on the surrounding region.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged north and south to return to the negotiating table and resist "further acts of aggression."

"We must all impress on the parties that military confrontation in Abyei is not an option," he told heads of state at an African Union meeting in Addis Ababa.

Thousands of Abyei residents initially fled to the town of Agok, just over the border into south Sudan, said aid groups.

U.N. and aid agencies said up to 40,000 had now been forced to leave their homes and were moving deeper into south Sudan.

"There are enormous numbers of people now on the road from Agok to Turalei, on muddy roads. Many kids need to be treated for dehydration," said Gustavo Fernandez, program manager with aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres.

Most refugees in Agok were living under trees, while 2,800 had found shelter in a local school, said the Anglican Alliance aid group.

"Civilians are down on streets and in bushes, no food, no shelter, no water and no medical assistance," the Anglican church umbrella group said in a report.

Misseriya militias started pushing further south after people left the region's main settlement Abyei town, said U.N. spokeswoman Hua Jiang.

"There are reports that they are moving south," she said.

Southern army spokesman Philip Aguer accused the north of using the Misseriya to carry out a land-grab ahead of the separation of the south.

"Misseriya are being transported by SAF (the northern army) to Abyei. They want to claim the land," he told Reuters.

NORTH DEFIANT

U.N. General Secretary Ban Ki-moon urged north and south to return to the negotiating table and resists "further acts of aggression."

"We must all impress on the parties that military confrontation in Abyei is not an option," he told heads of state's at an African Union meeting in Addis Ababa.

Sudan President Omar Hassan al-Bashir defied U.S., U.N. and other calls to pull back, saying Abyei belonged to the north. "We will not withdraw from it," he said in Khartoum on Tuesday.

The north's show of force could shake a fragile political balance that has held in Africa's largest country since the 2005 deal ended the civil war that left millions dead.

It could also delay the restoration of normal diplomatic relations between north Sudan and the outside world.

The United States on Monday ruled out dropping it from a terrorism list and restoring Washington's ambassador to Khartoum if it continues to occupy Abyei.

A total of 14 rounds were fired when the United Nations helicopters took off from a U.N. compound in Abyei town on Tuesday but they landed safely, U.N. spokeswoman Jiang said.

Jiang said Misseriya militias supported by Khartoum were probably responsible for the attack.

Fighting and looting -- some of which targeted supply bases of U.N. agencies -- had died down, she added.

Northern forces had deployed military aircraft at a northern airbase in El Obeid within striking distance to Abyei, said the Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP), a monitoring group.

"The presence of these attack-capable planes in close proximity to Abyei is consistent with reports of SAF (northern) bombing attacks in Abyei within the past five days," said SSP.

No reliable casualty figure have emerged yet as aid agencies struggle to reach Abyei. Britain's ambassador in Khartoum, Nicholas Kay, wrote on his blog that two embassy staff had lost relatives in the disputed region.

(Additional reporting by Aaron Maasho in Addis Ababa; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer in Cairo; Editing by Matthew Jones)

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Sudan's Bashir refuses to withdraw Abyei troops (Reuters)

KHARTOUM (Reuters) – Sudan's president on Tuesday refused to withdraw troops from the disputed Abyei region they seized over the weekend, defying international calls for them to pull out and raising the stakes in a standoff with the south.

"Abyei is northern Sudanese land," Omar Hassan al-Bashir said in a speech, adding he had given the green light to the northern army to respond to any "provocation" by the south which also claims Abyei and plans to secede in July.

Sudan's northern army moved tanks into Abyei town, the border area's main settlement, on Saturday, sparking an international outcry and forcing thousands to flee.

Analysts are watching how the south will react, fearing further north-south fighting over Abyei, which has oil and grazing land, could reignite a full-blown conflict that would disrupt the already fragile region.

North and south Sudan fought for decades before a 2005 peace deal that also allowed southerners to vote overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum in January.

The United Nations said on Tuesday it has asked south Sudan to investigate separate attacks on U.N. peacekeepers in Abyei last week by what appear to have been southern security forces.

Such attacks, the U.N. said, amount to war crimes.

"The available information and eyewitness accounts describing the assailants, including their uniforms, strongly suggests that the attackers were members of the southern Sudan police or military forces," U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky told reporters in New York.

Khartoum accused the south of ambushing northern troops traveling in a convoy with U.N. peacekeepers on May 20 in the Abyei region. The south denied carrying out the attack.

Earlier on Tuesday in Khartoum, Sudan Cabinet Affairs Minister Luka Biong, a southerner, told Reuters he was resigning in protest at the northern seizure of Abyei.

"These are real war crimes. I have never seen such suffering. Houses are burned in Abyei town and south of it," Biong said.

U.N. officials said between 15,000 and 20,000 people fled Abyei, many heading to Agok, just over the southern border.

"We are concerned ... about the grave humanitarian consequences of what's transpired in Abyei. There have been horrific reports of looting and burning," said Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., visiting the southern capital Juba.

KHARTIUM DEFIANT

North Sudanese officials said their army moved in to clear out southern soldiers who it said had broken agreements by entering the area. The south denies this.

The African Union said former South African President Thabo Mbeki had met Sudan's President Bashir and southern President Salva Kiir to try and resolve the crisis.

Abyei remains the most contentious point in the build-up to the secession of the south, the source of 75 percent of the country's 500,000 barrels a day oil production.

The 2005 deal also promised Abyei residents their own referendum over whether to join north or south, but that did not take place as neither could agree who was qualified to vote.

The peace deal created a coalition government dominated by Bashir's National Congress Party and the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), headed by Kiir. Both were also allowed to keep their own armies.

The coalition government is due to be dissolved on the secession of the south which currently has its own semi-autonomous government.

(Additional reporting by Ulf Laessing in Khartoum, Jeremy Clarke in Juba, Louis Charbonneau at the United Nations, Barbara Lewis in Geneva, Wangui Kanina in Nairobi and John Irish in Paris; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

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