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Monday, May 30, 2011

The Revenge of Steve Jobs (PC Magazine)

Not long after the IBM PC began to takeoff in 1982, Steve Jobs and team started working on the Mac in earnest. He was convinced that the PC—with its mainframe and minicomputer-like, text-driven interface—would never catch on with mainstream users, and he set his team on creating a new computer that had a graphical user interface. Although he did not disclose that a new computer was coming from Apple at that time, I remember him telling some of us about how the PC was too geeky and boxy to be considered anything but a business computer. Even then, he was fixated on ease of use and design.

To his dismay, the PC did take off, and even when the Mac came out and helped redefine the user interface by making it more consumer friendly, the PC went on to defy his viewpoint and become the defacto standard for personal computing. If you know Apple's history, Jobs's decision to not license the Mac OS doomed Apple to a distant second place behind Windows and IBM compatible PCs. Apple has been struggling to play catch up to this dominant platform since 1984.

But Steve Jobs has never given up on his vision of creating the "next" great computer. When he was kicked out of Apple in 1984, his main goal was to create the computer that could beat the original Mac and the PC. He attempted to do this with the launch of his NeXT Computer. While the NeXT Computer did not do that, the base NeXT OS code that he created during that time eventually became the core of the new Mac OS and is central to iOS today as well.

In fact, his desire to create the "next" big computer and thumb his nose at the PC market that rejected his early creations is now stronger than ever. Jobs is inflicting his own version of personal revenge by causing major nightmares for traditional PC vendors with the new products and services that he has brought to market since he returned to Apple in 1997. While his moves are all business, his intentions are clearly to make sure that this time he wins the battle for producing the next big thing in personal computers.

His first onslaught into creating the next major computing platform was with the Mac itself. He has now extended its OS in ways that make it the richest PC OS on the market today. His MacBook Air is the thinnest and lightest laptop and is redefining what a portable computer should look like. But the thing that is frightening his competitors is that after decades of lagging behind the PC vendors, the Mac today is kicking their butts. Not only is the Mac outpacing the broader PC market, but it is doing it in virtually every segment from enterprise to government to education. According to IDC, Mac shipments grew 27 percent in March—a period in which PC shipments declined 1.2 percent. IDC goes on to say that in Europe, Mac sales were up 10 percent year over year, while the PC market there was down 17.5 percent. In Asia, IDC says Mac sales were up 69.4 percent, while the PC market was up just 8.8 percent. Even more interesting is that in PC crazed Japan, Mac sales where up 21.1 percent and total PC sales declined 16.1 percent.

Helping that growth is Apple's impressive retail presence. Apple stores have defied pretty much every one's prediction that they would fail. In fact, May 19, 2011 marked the 10th anniversary of the first Apple Store. Through these stores, Apple has redefined what it takes to sell technology products and has raised the bar so much that it has made it almost impossible for the mainstream retailers to compete head-to-head with them, especially when it comes to personalized services.

One thing Jobs really understands is that even though Apple creates an easy to use UI for all of its products, technology by nature has many variables and is still complex, so consumers need hand-holding from time-to-time. According to Apple, 50 percent of the people who buy Macs in its stores are new to the Mac platform, which means that these folks are choosing to turn their backs on Windows-based PCs. This is a huge trend, and with the stores helping make computer buying fun and easy, it should not be a big surprise that Apple is gaining ground on its PC competitors.

But the crowning jewel in Jobs's personal revenge is the iPad. With this product, he finally brought out the "next" computer. Apple delivered what really is the next major personal computing platform. But this time, he realized that just creating a hardware device and a great OS is not enough. In his long-range planning way of thinking, he spent the last decade building out a rich service component that includes iTunes, the App Store, and the soon to be announced cloud service. These services combined with the new personal computing device give users a richer experience. To Jobs, perhaps the more important aspect of this is that the whole package is hard to replicate.

His success with the iPad has, like the original PC from IBM, shown the market what the next big computing platform will be. And like the first time around, Jobs and company is sticking with their decision of not licensing iOS. And of course, he won't give any OEM access to his services either. This time around, Windows is not Apple's chief competitor though. Google's Android is Apple's most competitive challenger in the mobile OS game. The big question is whether Android can eventually be the spoiler to Apple that Windows was back in the 1980s or 1990s.

The competition sure hopes so. I have talked with CEOs, CMOs, and many top execs with competing devices, and they basically see Android eventually replicating what Windows did for PCs and delivering the largest OS platform for tablets. I am not so sure this is true for the first few years of tablets. The iPad gets its great utility from the apps and connected ecosystem Apple provides. The Apple stores also enhances the iPad, because they have become the go-to location for anyone even slightly interested in a tablet. On the other hand, the competing tablets will be on racks in big box stores and specialty computer retailers, where they are all vying with each other and where they will receive little sales support to help consumers with buying decisions. But, once they become commodity devices, like PCs are today, the balance could be tipped towards Android and other OSs as well. But at the moment, with Macs on a major upswing and the iPad leading the current tablet assault, Steve Jobs's revenge engine is in high gear.


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